Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (31332)	10/25/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Les and all - What is the HDD-CHI and HDD-CINN? They rarely move. Chicago Mercantile Exchange GLOBEX PRICES AS OF 10/25/99 10:41 AM TRADE DATE: 10/25/99 CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE S&P 500 DEC99 1300.70 -650 EURO $ DEC99 93.90 -4 E-MINI DEC99 1300.00 -725 MAR00 93.935 -2.5 MAR00 1315.75A -800 JUN00 93.70 -2 NSDQ100 DEC99 2485.75B -1075 SEP00 93.525 -2.5 E-NASDAQ DEC99 2499.50A +300 DEC00 93.335A -3 GSCI NOV99 189.25P ---- MAR01 93.325 -1 HDD-ATL OCT99 123.0P ---- EURO CAN DEC99 94.68P ---- HDD-CHI OCT99 425.0 -20 LIBOR NOV99 94.47 -1.75 HDD-CINN OCT99 341.0A -4 DEC99 93.40 -2 HDD-NY OCT99 250.0P ----

To: Les H who wrote (31332)	10/25/1999 3:53:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

TALK FROM TRENCHES: TRADERS NEED HELP, CUSTOMERS DON'T CARE By Isobel Kennedy and Robert Ramos NEW YORK (MktNews) - The U.S Treasury market just cannot get out of its own way. Prices continue to seep lower. Any support is only temporary and real help from the customer base has yet to be found. "Come out, come out, wherever you are" say the traders who are vainly looking for buyers. Friday, some people were chomping at the bit to get 2s at 5.95%. Needless to say, current 2s were last at a 5.99%. Not to worry. The eternal optimists say the 2Y auction on Wednesday will "get gobbled up at 6.00%." Others say, "Show me the money!" As far as the long bond is concerned, it looks like traders will just keep hitting it lower until they find a level that hooks in retail. Unfortunately, some sources say that may not happen until the bond yields 6.50%. But as one guy said, "When you're in a hole, just keep digging." Guess the frustrated bulls have stopped using the more professional term of "averaging down." Hopefully, the Street will get a clue about where real money gets involved by next week's quarterly refunding announcement. This go around they will be selling 5s and 10s. It is probably lucky that there will be no long bond until February. Since the market is clearly fixated on the negatives, we decided to list some of them: 1) Bond markets in U.S. and Europe have lost belief in the new era, Goldilocks economy. They are looking at strong U.S. growth and firming global growth. 2) With this kind of strength, players are becoming convinced that inflation is in the offing. Hence, the Fed and the ECB will have to raise rates. The ECB and Bank of England meet next week. The Fed's next meeting in November 16. 3) Past attempts to rally were short-lived, fizzling quite quickly. The market is focusing on bad news and looking for more. Concrete evidence that the worst is past will be needed to sustain higher prices. 4) Stocks continue to defy Greenspan warnings. Both the Dow and Nasdaq recovered a good portion of last week's steep losses. 5) Upcoming data, especially Q3 Gross domestic product and employment cost index, has the market very nervous. In addition, the October jobs report is just around the corner. 6) While U.S. Treasury supply is technically no longer a problem, traders will have to absorb next month's new 5s and 10s in a market that currently lacks sponsorship. When, and at what level, do real end users care? 7) While many think the dollar is strong, it really is a mixed picture. The dollar is closer to its year highs versus the euro, but it is closer to the lows against the yen. 8) The technicals look awful, techies say. The long bond hit a new two-year low earlier today and more long liquidations could be in the cards. 9) U.S. Fed and European monetary officials warn about inflation and spout innuendos hinting at rate hikes. But they are all talk and no action. The markets, at this point, are doing the tightening for the monetary stewards. But if the Street sincerely begins to believe that these guys are behind the curve -- watch out. 10) Like to admit it or not, real-end-user yield hogs have been pigging out on sister market paper and shunning the Treasury market. And now municipal bonds have topped 6.00% for the first time since March 1995. We were going to list the positives but we could only find one -- dwindling Treasury supply. Of course, if you think the market is near the bottom, that too is a positive. Isn't this the time of the year that the bears go into hibernation? "But, it sure doesn't feel that way," said a guy who was hunkered down in his trench. NOTE: Talk From the Trenches is a daily compendium of chatter from Treasury trading rooms offered as a gauge of the mood in the financial markets. It is not hard, verified news. economeister.com