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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Raymond Duray who wrote (94)10/25/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Respond to of 1782
 
re: copper chariots and prehistoric human parts

Raymond, good show. While QB does the last (or was that the first?) mile, another firm which I recently posted on [not sure if it was here or in another forum on the 'net] is focusing on fiber at the in-building level - a startup in Ireland called Blaze Networks.

I must make it a point to analyze both of their products at one point, and determine whether Blaze and Quantum manufacture to the same rail gauge (channel grid). No, I'm not taking any bets at this time, but if I were...

RE: Copper cages...

Kinbush is echoing one of George's favorite metaphors: The Copper Cage, a.k.a., the DS-0 Cage.

I have found myself echoing this term myself from time to time, but at some point this comparison can be both overdone, and impertinent. In this case, it was an inappropriate tool for comparison, IMO, when you stop to consider the follow-on statement that was made. Nevertheless, I did find the passage by Kinbush to be very entertaining reading, too.

The follow on statement was:

"This story made me think of the difference of approach in business growth between the AT&Ts of the world and the GBLXs of the world."

At which point I am compelled to ask: What is it that GBLX is doing that T didn't do years ago, from a technological rail-gauge setting perspective? GBLX is packaging its bits in the same SONET containers as T does. Worse, they have to package to the Europeans' SDH on the other side of the pond, as well. SONET, and SDH, neither one of which were invented by GBLX, in fact, was not T's sole doing. It was a series of compromises, decisions at the then CCITT level, after other forms of optical formats were scuttled, and still others had to be taken into account in order to arrive at interoperability. At some point up into their respective hierarchies, both the SONET and SDH meet and become interoperable... so the story goes, at the OC3 or STM 1 level of 155 Mb/s. But I digress.

GBLX is using DWDMs manufactured by one of T's spinoffs. They are also using, or plan to use soon, the OpticAir Link device that runs at infrared wavelengths, which also packages bits in SONET containers, and is made by the same spinoff: LU.

When they get their high capacity stuff beyond the landing points, both here and overseas, the only way that they can sell it is to repackage it into copper cage denominations, or at best, in SONET containers... which are, themselves, the grown up descendents of the copper cagers.

This ought to change soon, at some point, but when it does T and the other elephants will be there, too.

So, why do I like GBLX? Couple of reasons, aside from the fact that I know some of the principals from another life.

They have shown chutzpa and courage (okay, albeit with other peoples' monies), breaking new ground on a scale that would have [and did] scared the dickens out of the incumbent long haul providers, just a year or two ago. Why do I say it would have scared the dickens out of them? Because of the disruptive effect that moving forward with massive amounts of bandwidth beneath the seas has had on the world order, from a telecomms perspective. Nothing short of that.

But is GBLX "innovating" beyond the scope of what a WCOM or a T can do when it comes to technology breakthroughs, as characterized by cages made of materials other than copper? Not at all. And here's why:

The basic SONET frame, which is still the building block of most of GBLX's and everyone else's flows, is still a T3 Frame with overhead for surveillance and signaling. When you put the overhead on top of the T3 you have an OC-1 SONET Frame.

The T3 frame is still a bundle made up of 28 T1s.

The T1 is still a bundle made up of 24 voice channels, each one of them rated at 64 kb/s.

The 64 kb/s voice channel rate can be traced back to the digital word encoding that was settled on to approximate the commercial quality range requirements of the human ear, back in the Sixties, when digital T carrier systems were first introduced.

The ear? Well, I guess you'll have to go back to an era some time before the Romans, for that one.

Regards, Frank Coluccio



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (94)11/17/1999 9:48:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1782
 
Ray, you might be interested in knowing that Quantum Bridge's architecture, specifically their Dynamic Wavelength Slicing protocol, is depicted in this month's BCR Mag. It's not on their web site yet. Their technology is depicted feeding passive optical network (PON) field units which in turn support businesses and residential intelligent optical terminal devices at the premises. Frank



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (94)11/17/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: Beltropolis Boy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1782
 
***slightly OT***

yikes, ray, is our illustrious "Loring Wirbel" an anagram for misanthrope?

or am i simply afraid to admit that i feel the same way?

-----

November 15, 1999, Issue: 1087
Section: Semiconductors
Boundless prosperity?
LORING WIRBEL
techweb.com

Okay, I give up. If the market continues to roll with only minor downward corrections, my new millennium's resolution is to toss out all those back issues of The Economist that warned of speculative bubbles in the Internet economy. If everyone from Kofi Annan at Telecom 99 to John McQuillan at Next Generation Networks agrees that we are entering a new broadband era where prosperity continues unabated until the Dow tops 50,000, who am I to disagree?

Really, the folks at NGN made a good argument for suggesting that not just the content and software barons behind e-commerce, but also the infrastructure equipment makers involved in the plumbing of the Internet, should expect nothing but exponential growth for years to come. Speakers from Level 3 and Lucent made a good case for a model of price elasticity that would drive millions of newbies to demand always-on broadband connections, provided traditional carriers can be persuaded to stop trying to sustain high prices for voice services. If cheaper bandwidth promotes escalating numbers of Internet users the way cheaper MPUs made PCs a necessary household appliance, then all those involved in internetworking should just get richer.

The new metric after Cisco's acquisition of Cerrent [sic] Corp. is that good design engineers should be worth $25 million to $40 million each. Think about that. Maybe you don't even have to try to work 70-hour weeks any more. If you can come up with good PowerPoint slides to suggest a backbone aggregator for optical networks, go sell yourself to Lucent or Nortel and spend your life snowboarding.

So if this is all a foregone conclusion, why did everything at NGN feel Vegas-like in its easy money atmosphere? Our editor, Rick Merritt, identified some of the problems in a recent editorial (see Oct. 25, page 84), when he said it was useless to advocate universal broadband access to people who still have a deficit of food and shelter in their lives.

Maybe the flush of Internet cash for broadband services also seems surreal because it is not "about" anything. E-commerce aids in the accumulation of stupid toys, while potentially displacing living human bodies in the service industry as IS departments are gutted. But few can specify exactly how always-on broadband, and even universal tele-immersion, truly improves our quality of life. Casino capitalism has become self-referential capitalism, and there is little point to the snake that eats its own tail for the sake of more stock options. But I'll shut up. We're all happy-and rich-now.