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To: NickSE who wrote (71695)	10/25/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: NickSE	Respond to of 86076

TALK FROM TRENCHES: TRADERS NEED HELP, CUSTOMERS DON'T CARE economeister.com [...] Since the market is clearly fixated on the negatives, we decided to list some of them: 1) Bond markets in U.S. and Europe have lost belief in the new era, Goldilocks economy. They are looking at strong U.S. growth and firming global growth. 2) With this kind of strength, players are becoming convinced that inflation is in the offing. Hence, the Fed and the ECB will have to raise rates. The ECB and Bank of England meet next week. The Fed's next meeting in November 16. 3) Past attempts to rally were short-lived, fizzling quite quickly. The market is focusing on bad news and looking for more. Concrete evidence that the worst is past will be needed to sustain higher prices. 4) Stocks continue to defy Greenspan warnings. Both the Dow and Nasdaq recovered a good portion of last week's steep losses. 5) Upcoming data, especially Q3 Gross domestic product and employment cost index, has the market very nervous. In addition, the October jobs report is just around the corner. 6) While U.S. Treasury supply is technically no longer a problem, traders will have to absorb next month's new 5s and 10s in a market that currently lacks sponsorship. When, and at what level, do real end users care? 7) While many think the dollar is strong, it really is a mixed picture. The dollar is closer to its year highs versus the euro, but it is closer to the lows against the yen. 8) The technicals look awful, techies say. The long bond hit a new two-year low earlier today and more long liquidations could be in the cards. 9) U.S. Fed and European monetary officials warn about inflation and spout innuendos hinting at rate hikes. But they are all talk and no action. The markets, at this point, are doing the tightening for the monetary stewards. But if the Street sincerely begins to believe that these guys are behind the curve -- watch out. 10) Like to admit it or not, real-end-user yield hogs have been pigging out on sister market paper and shunning the Treasury market. And now municipal bonds have topped 6.00% for the first time since March 1995. We were going to list the positives but we could only find one -- dwindling Treasury supply. Of course, if you think the market is near the bottom, that too is a positive. Isn't this the time of the year that the bears go into hibernation? "But, it sure doesn't feel that way," said a guy who was hunkered down in his trench with RealMan.