Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (4398)	10/26/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 10293

Hi Jemmie .. watch the dollar .. The rate hike can take place that way faster than with the fed. When the dollar takes a hit, people dump bonds = rates go up. This is somewhat of a feedback process. The reason is that selling (or shorting) US bonds is the quickest way to raize large volumes of dollars to exchange for yen.. marks.. pounds.. etc. And then when that takes place the bond and dollar has fallen again which makes it even more attractive to do the same thing all over again. At some point, after the dollar has fallen enough, the big boyz can then reverse and keep the profit. All of this hits faster than the fed can act. The only thing that the fed can do, at times like those, is to raise rates to stop the flow. This is a reaction after the fact. However, it's only then that the stock market seems to realize what just took place. Watch the dollar .. you can almost see the inverse relationship on a tick by tick basis. Yep .. the bond market is worried about the dollar .. and the stock market is worried about the bond market .. And I still believe that there are Central banks just waiting for gold to hit a predetermined strike to dump reserves. Get the picture .. bond rates go up, so people sell stockz to buy bonds .. at first, bonds go up because of panic flight to quality. As bonds go up there is more bond shorting available for the big boyz .. Bonds then start to fall and people, in another panic, start to shift to gold .. and then gold dumps. Hell on earth, for people about to retire.