To: Lee who wrote (145814 ) 10/26/1999 11:43:00 AM From: JRI Respond to of 176388
Hi Lee.....I continue to have faith about the Bravos...but it don't look good...El Duque and Cone were magnificant... Still, the Yanks have won 10 straight WS games...and 9 of 10 in the playoffs this year, so far...surely they are due for a bad game (or two)...better happen quick <G> RE: White box...White box guys have been losing share consistently over the last few years...this can be seen from the Dataqust/IDC data..."Other" category...well, ok, "Other" is not all white box...some are "named" vendors (like Micron)..but, my point being, the BIG 5 are taking share at the expense of the others.. Among the big 5, only Dell, CPQ, and Gateway have been growing, quarter-after-quarter, at a consistent 20%+ (or so) or more rate....IBM/HP will have a great growth quarter...and then a weak one......and especially Dell and Gateway grow at accerlerated rates.... RE: Companies going out of biz....I am really talking about exiting the PC biz....not all the other stuff that goes along with it..(services, high-end, servers, etc)...But the box-business, alone, is huge...and the absence of one or two big players...or even, a less competitive environment could have a significant impact on Dell margins, IMO...remember, only a couple years ago, Dell had to win business by underpricing the others (significantly)...while the other sold their "brand" reputation at higher prices..NOW, Dell's brand, I would think, is seen as much (or more) as a quality play as the others....and all this focus on quality (and a quality brand) is going to pay off for Dell in the future..in fatter margins.....If you go back to MD's May 1998 CC (1st quarter earnings), you'll see that he talked about Dell doing this in the future...no longer being the (option of) "low-price" leader...but, becoming the quality play....Since their cost structure is still lean, that $$ goes straight to bottom-line (well, I guess some get siphoned off in all those Dell ads).. Compaq certainly has helped magnify Dell's brand this year... The others will survive, of course, I'm just not-so-sure it will (all) be in the PC space....and that has seriously (good) ramifications for the survivors (in the PC space)... Finally, I don't believe this loss leader crap....that has been tried before....and rarely (long-term) is a good strategy....