Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dustin who wrote (46216)	10/26/1999 5:01:00 PM
From: Don Edgerton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

This could be one of the reasons for Q weakness today: LOR/G* conference call summary (thanks to the G* yahoo thread) Top>Business & Finance>Investments>Sectors>Services>Communications Services>GSTRF (Globalstar Telecommun.) Loral/G* conf. call by: michaelth1 15456 of 15459 Just listened to the loral / G* conf. call. It was very informative, although I'm not sure I loved what I heard (or how much BS will stick to his statements): Handsets: 10,000 handsets available now; 35,000 by YE 99; with production ramping up to 40,000 per month in Jan.; it seems that it will be tough, but not impossible, to get the manufacturers to ramp up more than 40,000 per month. BS thinks that handsets are the major constraint to G's business plan (i.e., he sees no problem with demand). Handsets are generally split equally among the 3 manufacturers. Rollout: China (Dec); Brazil (Nov 15); France (Dec); Italy (Nov); South Africa (Jan); Argentina (Nov); South Korea (Dec); US & Canada (Nov). One caveat was that the FBI still hasn't given G the authorization to turn the system on for US & Canada because of security issues. BS was confident a resolution would be reached.... G* Revenues: Sticking to $600 million revenues for 2000 based upon an AVERAGE of 500,000 - 600,000 users (I'm guessing that means 1 million by YE). BS reiterated that this was depenant on the phone manufacturers delivering enough phones to reach these levels. Even if they don't increase past 40,000 per month, BS said they should "only" have to revise downward $100 million (i.e., $500 million revenue for the year). G* Rates: Set locally by SPs, but the range is $1.30 - $1.50 per minute for calls staying in-country (e.g., France - France); $1.50 - $1.99 for roaming calls (I think this meant staying in the gateway, e.g., France to England); and no higher than $2.99 for a worldwide call. These numbers are ALL-INCLUSIVE (i.e., include any and all roaming rates, gateway fees, long distance, etc.). G* Fees: Will vary with SPs. Some, but not all, SPs will charge monthly fees ($5 - $30), but those SPs won't likely charge an initiation fee. Conversely, those that don't charge an monthly fee may charge an initiation fee (no amount set). References were made to "bundled rates", which I think meant a calling plan (i.e., 50 minutes for $50 - those numbers are mine), but no details were provided. Fixed vs. Mobile Handsets: For those handsets delivered for 1999, about 1/3 will be fixed and 2/3 mobile. Thereafter, about 1/4 fixed and 3/4 mobile. Car kits and meritime kits will be available for about 20% of the initial order of phones (not totally clear on what this meant; 20% combined? 20% each? 20% of the 300,000? 20% of the 1999 phones?). G* Short-term: BS said that G* won't hit $10 million revenue in 1999 because of the soft rollout. G* / Omnitracs: Nothing asked or mentioned, although BS hinted about using G* in connection with Cyberstar for 2-way data transmission at 9.8 kb, basically good enough for a mouse click. No indication on revenue impact. My opinion is that the Street will continue to take a "show me" attitude with G* until it produces numbers. I'm staying long, but not adding to my position (which is half of what it was 6 months ago). If G* hits the teens again, I'll probably load up if business plan is intact. Posted: 10/26/1999 3:22 pm EDT as a reply to: Msg 15454 by like_wall_eh No other news that I can find other than the CSCO wireless consortium issue which seem to have no impact early. Premiums on calls are high. However a NOvember 200/ 220 call spread appears to have a good risk reward. 200/210 may be even better here. Give away some upside. Net debit of six/upside to 10 with Q over 210. With the 120 calls, you need a 135 close to get the same % return - which may be doable. Downside risk is 6 versus 9 on the straight call. Thoughts?

To: Dustin who wrote (46216)	10/26/1999 5:55:00 PM
From: FlameMe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

This stock trades really strange. Either the market makers are manipulating or their are a lot of short sellers involved with this stock. If it's short sellers, then that explains last weeks little squeeze on moderate volume. The cell-phone cancer story didn't cause a drop so they panicked out of shorts. It also explains the sloppy selling, weighing heavy on the stock to give the appearance of weakness. Of course, it could just be Voltaire's House manipulation again. If it were institutional longs exiting positions, I don't think they would sell in this manner and volume would be heavier. BWDIK. Regards, Ross