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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (31512)	10/26/1999 7:56:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

He said the bottom is already in place..... GZ

To: Lucretius who wrote (31512)	10/26/1999 8:41:00 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Here's Acampora's comments from this morning: October 26, 1999, 9:45 A.M. EDT Prices as of close on 10/25/99 U.S. Stock Market Outlook Near-Term Yesterday, the DJIA closed down -120.3 points at 10,349.99 or -1.15%. Although financial stocks got a boost from a governmental bill passed last week, a slew of economic numbers are due starting Wednesday prompting enough nervousness in the equity markets to sell the group down. The NASDAQ Composite was down -0.6 points to 2815.9 or -0.02%. The Russell 2000 was down -0.93 points at 417.76 or -0.22%. This week we are at the tail end of earnings and consumer durable goods are due Wednesday. We caution to be selective as this market seems to be rotating to different sectors. Third quarter numbers are still relatively good. In August 1998 we turned into a cyclical bear because of massive selling in the blue chips and NO corresponding buying in any thing else. This past summer we saw some selling in stocks but gave the market the benefit of the doubt because of ROTATION—that is, money went from one sector(s) into another sector(s). However, several weeks ago we expressed some NEAR TERM concerns—not because of stocks but because of other factors. We stressed that we were still LONG TERM BULLS with the following near-term problems: US Dollar slipped into a major downtrend. Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) was persistently moving up. 30 Year Treasuries going lower as interest rates go higher. above three inter market factors would, most likely, cause some volatility for the stock market between now and year-end. Purely technical factors like the Dow Theory, the negative direction of utilities, the breadth data, etc. are also distorting the near-term picture. We stressed then, as we do today, that one must be STOCK SELECTIVE. We encourage our followers to read the technical article in this week's Barron's publication. It outlined all of the same concerns we just mentioned and even a few more technical problems. The conclusion is different for some technical analysts then it is for us—we are still long-term bulls because of ROTATION. Remember, technical indicators (the top down approach) is one thing and the bottom up approach (stock selection) is quite another matter. As long as we can find stocks to buy (issues to rotate into), we will hang tough for the long term. In the meantime, we see very little improvement near-term except that we are impressed with the ability of the leading averages to hold above previous near-term lows. For example, the Dow industrials are still above 10,000 and the S&P 500 is still above its late September low despite the negative inter market problems. Conclusion: Expect more of the same market volatility and rapid rotation. We don't have enough evidence to suggest that the final lows are in place. Earning season is still with us and should exert a positive influence near-term but once it is over we will have to deal with the inter market factors once again. There is a slight improvement in the US Dollar. Like last year, once the low is firmly in place, it should set the stage for a strong and broad based recovery. The Year 2000 is expected to be a good one because it is a re-election year. In the meantime, we can not stress enough how important individual stock selection is at this time—look at the “Attractive Stocks” section below for good looking buy ideas. Here are the technical levels that we believe, if broken, will indicate further upside or downside momentum: Dow Jones Industrial Average Primary Support 10,085 Secondary Support 9,625 Primary Resistance 11,366 Standard and Poors 500 Primary Support 1257.46 Secondary Support 1205.46 Primary Resistance 1420.14 Nasdaq Composite Primary Support 2442.22 Secondary Support 2339.10 Primary Resistance 2923.32 Russell 2000 Primary Support 442.49 Secondary Support 431.37 Primary Resistance 465.80 Source: Bridge Data Service prusec.com