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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (31521)	10/26/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Jerry, i always feel nervous being short when so many are in the bear camp, and especially nervous when your bearish -gg- but what your saying here is true, you can tell the character of a market on how it reacts to news. SOFtie not only didn't rally to new highs on blow-out earnings and addition to the Dow --- didn't even break it's downtrendline - (at least yet!) here are inger's commments, anyone who has followed him knows that he is not attached to a bull or bear position and is a great timer. ingerletter.com

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (31521)	10/26/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

I like your scenario but I checked the OEX options tonight and there is a boat load of open contracts weighted to the put side at 655 and below, they either need to move the market up before expiration to close them out when the time premium gets lower or else construct a rally after the FOMC to make them all expire worthless. Just something to keep in mind. There are too many puts out there right now to let it drop and expire that low. I have Max "noncomfort" at around 677. If they have to miss, it would be better to be 5-10 too high. Of course that is all 3 weeks away so they can tank it now but they will need to get it back up before the 19 November expiration. Good Luck, Lee