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To: David Wiggins who wrote (8048)10/27/1999 9:00:00 AM
From: Jeff Vayda  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29987
 
David: I guess this is where I diverge from some investors:
If one can't hold the CEO to his word, one begins to doubt whether the ship is coming to this port at all.

I take the view that there are many things beyond any one person's control. You must change with the times. The only bad plan is the one that is not flexible enough to adjust with developments. That is why I take everything that is said with two grains of salt. Bernie can promise the moon and then change and promise the stars. I dont make one person's statement a litmus test. Things change.

It is a constant process of adjustment. I wish I was privy to the day to day workings so I could have the best vantage point from which to make my investment choices. But I dont. Instead, I assemble as many different sources of information as I can, that is why I'm on SI. SI provides a wide range of information - some good, some not so good; but all valuable to me. Some information has more weight than others. Some of Bernie's promises are lower on the scale than others because I understand his power over particular areas is less than others. In the end I take the sum of the information presented and form an opinion.

Yesterday information was added in the form of the latest quarterly report. My view is that things are improving. A strong base is being built. This is not a house of cards, which goes up fast but tumbles just as quickly. Iriduim has shown the example of rushing to market. I much prefer going slower and building a foundation.

Loral has doubled its transponders in space with more to come. Utilization rates are not as high as promised earlier, but are increasing and continue to increase with the pick up in the world's economy.

My time frame is longer than the churn analysts on the Street. Loral has undertaken a massive undertaking and IMO is proceeding at a prudent pace.

Jeff Vayda



To: David Wiggins who wrote (8048)10/27/1999 10:19:00 AM
From: djane  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
 
G* at 19 7/8 down 1 7/8 with 2.4M (!) shares traded already. 19 as intraday low. Portfolio managers seems a little panicky...



To: David Wiggins who wrote (8048)10/29/1999 5:16:00 PM
From: Lu_Xun  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 29987
 
I think G* longs are altogether too pessimistic about the shortage of the handsets. It seems to me that in all likelihood what is going on here is pretty simple: the phone manufacturers don't want to make too large a commitment to phone production until they are sure that there is really a market for the service. I for one have never doubted the existence of the market, which I believe to be vast.

While the shortage of handsets is a problem, it is only a temporary problem. For one thing, even at current rates of production there will be over 500K handsets produced by y/e 2000. If they are all sold and in use by then, the manufacturers will lose their hesitancy and begin pumping out phones to beat the band.

Bottom line: this may hurt G* results for year 2000 but will probably have no effect beyond that. That's my view, at least.

Lu Xun