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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9493)	10/27/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

what I find amazing to watch, forget the pain, is the volatility of some very large companies like HWP and IBM to name two. I could make a huge list, but it is sure something to see a stock lose 30% or more for being a few pennies short or for having less revenue growth than some would like... Sure shows how high multiples are! I wonder how the market would react of CSCO, SUNW and MSFT got hit? Massive panic or would the money go to other, lower valued companies? IF so many are "long term buy and hold" then why is there so much volatility in these big names? I did hear a few yrs ago that higher volatility often characterized the end of bull markets. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, Y2K brings. many STILL think much more will be pulled out since "Americans procrastinate alot" is what I heard from one anecdotal source.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9493)	10/27/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

A risk free Ginnie Mae return of 7% is not looking so bad today. The Point and Figure stuff is suggesting an important LOW is in the making. From whatever LOW is identified, a rally 2 to 4 times that return is possible, especially in the right sectors. As for Ginnie, she does carry the risk of interest rate uncertainty and we have already seen how rising rates have tempered returns this year. If rates level off and start declining, I think equities will provide enough additional return to compensate for additional market risk. As for the guy who's only up 7% this year, well he beat out Ginnie and probably did no worse then most diversified funds, even index funds. You have to break a few eggs to make an omelette. QCOM, CSCO, EXDS, DCLK, CMGI, MSFT, SUNW to name a few. A