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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: kemble s. matter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Jean, Hi!!! You've been doing your homework....Excellent post...I hope everyone reads your assessment... Best, Kemble

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: OLDTRADER	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

RE:Jean-They disparage to buy-eulogize to sell-they are all crooks.wbm-PS-Great post-We could not agree more in spades,you are a winner.wbm-WOW!New stuff just came in!DELL was only removed from the focus list of H & Q for the time being-still ranked a BUY-CNBC have been reporting it wrong!wbm

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 4:27:00 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 176387

Jean, RE: Can someone tell me WHY interest rates hurt the NasDaq, and especially MSFT, INTC and DELL, when they HAVE NO DEBT TO SPEAK OF, and they are SITTING ON MOUND OF CASH The stocks you list (particularly MSFT and DELL) have high PE's. We'll assume that these high PE's are well deserved. A significant part of the price of the stock is thus earnings in the future, and the higher the PE, the further in the future you are depending on earnings. The amount that these companies earn on their cash balances is minor compared with the worth of future earnings implicit in the stock price. Higher interest rates mean that these future earnings are worth less in today's dollars. Thus, stock prices decline. And the more expensive the stock, the greater the decline.

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: The Commander	Respond to of 176387

Blessed are the crap spreaders for they shall make profitable opportunities. Sometimes I share your frustration. It seems like the market discovers a new cow-pie to step into each and every day. Investor's ears pick up the loudest and not the wisest words. People have a propensity to listen to others and an aversion to their own thoughts. In debate, hot heads triumph over cool. The herd is nervous and easily spooked. The time is ripe for a stampede. Enjoy the shit! It will make your fields fertile. Steer the course, and pick the pockets of fools. Above all, enjoy yourself, Fred.

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jean, I find it funny that you are complaining about the lack of respect for DELL, MSFT and INTC among others. Do you realize the PE's MSFT and DELL are sporting? INTC has major problems, coppermine flops, Rambus flop, no 820 chipset, crashing ASP's, Competition from AMD and its Athlon. MSFT revenue growth and earning growth is slowing. Linux is taking market share which is going straight to the bottom line. Star Office, a competition for MS Office from Sun, can be downloaded for free and it is a very capable product. MS still has carries a healthy PE. Dell's just in time model with very low inventory is a liability at this point. Dell has benefited greatly from its model due to ever decreasing component prices. That trend has ended for now, as fab utilization around the world is high with no relief in sight. Dell's margins will be under pressure going forward. Re <<Can someone tell me WHY interest rates hurt the NasDaq, and especially MSFT, INTC and DELL, when they HAVE NO DEBT TO SPEAK OF, and they are SITTING ON MOUND OF CASH !!!!????!!!!!>> You do not seem to understand the problem with rising interest rates. First high interest rate is bad for high PE stock since future earnings are worth less in todays Dollor. Also IT SLOWS DOWN THE ECONOMY by restricting money supplies. Thus there is less demand for Dell's product. Also it makes the bond market more attractive, so investors pull money out of stocks (stocks go lower) and invest it in bonds. No stock always go up, I know DELL defied that rule for a long time but that is over now. Dell is a great company and its shareholders have benefited greatly. But it was/is priced as a great company and a bit of disappointment and there you have it. You seem to judge a stock by where the price has been, but you need to also look at what the earnings and growth was expected to be. 35% growth is simply not good enough when the stock is priced like DELL is. Mani

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: JRH	Respond to of 176387

Jean, Can someone tell me WHY interest rates hurt the NasDaq, and especially MSFT, INTC and DELL, when they HAVE NO DEBT TO SPEAK OF, and they are SITTING ON MOUND OF CASH !!!!????!!!!! Stocks derive their value from their discounted free cash flows. The companies you mentioned above are high because people perceive they are going to make much more than they are currently making in the future. If rates go up, suddenly the value of these cash flows diminish. Look at what has happened since the 30 year has gone from 5% to approx 6.4% Value of 1 million in 30 years discounted at 5%: PV = $1M/(1.05)^30 = $231,377 Value of 1 million in 30 years discounted at 6.4%: PV = $1M/(1.065)^30 = $151,186 Rates go up, bonds and stocks go down. Greenspan's performance will more easily be assessed 10 years from now. Either there has been a "sea change" in PE ratios, or we ain't gonna make much on stocks in the next 10 years (relative to years past) JRH

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/27/1999 8:16:00 PM
From: Mick Mørmøny	Respond to of 176387

Cohen sees rate hike Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen predicts November Fed rate rise October 27, 1999: 6:21 p.m. ET DETROIT (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates slightly in November, market guru Abby Joseph Cohen said Wednesday, but after that rates should stay relatively steady for several months. And despite recent stock market tumult, Cohen, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs & Co., believes U.S. equity markets remain about 5 percent undervalued relative to bonds. Cohen, a widely respected market analyst and one of the most consistently bullish on Wall Street, also said she expects U.S. inflation to remain in check because the global economy has not fully recovered its economic momentum. "It would take several quarters of very strong economic growth worldwide before we would see an inflation problem develop," Cohen said following remarks to the Economic Club of Detroit. Fed policy makers on the Federal Open Market Committee "very may well" decide to hike rates a quarter percentage point when they meet next month, Cohen said. But that would merely take back the rest of the three rate cuts enacted last fall amid a global financial crisis, she said. It would not represent a fundamental change toward tighter monetary policy. "Even if they decide to do that, they haven't made this huge tightening move," she said. Cohen predicted the next year or two will remain positive for U.S. corporate profits with continued growth in technology and financial service sectors. Other industries that have struggled, such as energy and basic materials, should continue to improve. Goldman (GS) forecasts the S&P 500 index will hit 1385 in 1999 and rise to 1450 a year from now. It closed Wednesday about 1296. Cohen said the Internet will help the economy by bringing customers and suppliers closer together, leading to lower prices. Companies also must seize the opportunities that electronic commerce offers to communicate with customers, she said. U.S. companies are well prepared for the Year 2000 computer transition, although some developing countries may have more problems, Cohen said. "All of the major computer systems will work," she said. "I cannot guarantee my microwave oven." cnnfn.com

To: Jean M. Gauthier who wrote (145911)	10/28/1999 12:05:00 AM
From: Dan Hua	Respond to of 176387

>2- Middle Year, it was interest rates. Can someone tell me >WHY interest rates hurt the NasDaq, and especially MSFT, > INTC and DELL, when they HAVE NO DEBT TO SPEAK OF, and >they are SITTING ON MOUND OF CASH > !!!!????!!!!! I'm no expert but even if those guys have no debt, maybe their customers do, and with higher rates, their customers will be more hesitant to buy their products. BTW, great post, I'm freakin frustrated myself at the poor performance of those GREAT stocks! dan