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To: ahhaha who wrote (44074)	10/27/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: Lola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116811

You have no idea how successful he is in the market. How can you make all these assumptions? You pretend to know everything about everything but the more you talk the more it becomes apparent how little you do know about the real world. What matters is how well your theories work in reality. Show us the money! Enough said.

To: ahhaha who wrote (44074)	10/27/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116811

<<I challenge anyone anytime to come up with a meaningful schedule of supply and demand for anything. >> I thought about this very topic with my wife the other day, & opined the lack of actual "need" which drives the current demand for cell phones...

To: ahhaha who wrote (44074)	10/27/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116811

<<Low float is irrelevant. Public isn't conditioned to buy Internet. They're terrified of it because of the presumed high valuation. It is the sophisticated big institutional players who have the conviction and run them up. In my judgement over the long term they will be completely justified and you will never admit that you were a fool not to buy at what appears to be the top. You better find a different conditioning or you will miss the biggest thing since railroads or airlines. Get away from gold and join up with the crowd. That's where the big money lies. Just consider how hard that is for you to do. Impossible, so that is the way to go.>> You have no clue. Are you living in a cave? The internet mania has been fueled by retail daytraders. <<Low float is irrelevant?>> I guess that is why every daytrading chatboard was looking for net stocks with low floats. You say that there is no manipulation and then you say that the institutions "ran them up". This implies something different. BTW...I spent most of this year trading internet stocks.

To: ahhaha who wrote (44074)	10/27/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116811

given infinite lifespans I would tend to agree with that line of reasoning, however, human lifespans aproximate zero much more so than infinity, thus error becuase very large due to the extreme volatility of an emerging concept. Not to mention that we are not just investing for our retirement 30 years down the road, but for enhancing the quality of life each year, further shortening the time frame closer to zero. Trends can be taken advantage of, even if they don't represent any concept such as "value" or "valuation" or "supply and demand". Obviously error analysis is an integral function or results would tend to do no better than average. Take a look at the charts of the internet "mania" vs. the biotech "mania" of the eighties. They are strikingly similar in amplitude as well as the time factor. Perhaps, instead of referring to it as a mania, it should be referred to as the economic anatomy of novel industry. In this anatomy there are stages: conception, sponsorship, acceptance, culling, and standardization. Anyway, trend analysis is nothing more than the astute ability to derive correlations to previous behavior patterns. Obviously, results are variable, but that does not imply futile. In my opinion, aggregate behavior is reproducible and can be harnessed to improve results relative to the buy and hold strategy.