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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (1102)	10/27/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 19219

Its about time your TA cought up with my bottom call. The FA showed the market had hit a solid bottom arround OCT 22. "Dow bounced hard off 10,350. The market is week on low volume and strong on heavy volume. In my opinion the market wants to rally, just needs a good excuse(like bonds). The path of least resistence seems to be up now. INMHO" The 10,350 has been the magical number, it will bend but it refuses to break. The FA says that either tomorrows ECI is bad and we re-test and then go higher. If its good we just go higher right off. The OCTOBER effect is ending in two days, the scared money is getting back in. The market has now priced in two fed hikes, Y2K disruption, and dramaticly higher inflation. What else can it price in? I think the path up is the one of least resistence. This should be another GREAT GREAT year for stocks, world wide sycronous growth, and an election year will be good for the BULLS. It is 2001 I would worry about. In 1994 when FED hiked rates and market bottomed before end of tightening. The bond Yielkd also peaked ahead of final two tightenings. Why? Because the market has it priced in! LETS GO LONG! By the way inflation is running at 2.8% and earnings are increasing at a 15-20% clip. Does that sound like a bad enviroment for equities? This time last year inflation was lower but corporate earnings were anemic, I think the enviroment now is as good as last year. Unless Inflation takes off, which the fed will prevent, we are in good shape. IMHO

To: J.T. who wrote (1102)	10/28/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

NDX has had a hard time getting thru this NDX 2,520 massive resistance level and this is the key for me going forward. NDX 2,520 is sitting on a triple top 30 minute scale: iqc.com In light of weakness in MSFT and INTC underperforming on upside, NDX must get this close above NDX 2,520 TODAY. Failure to get this close, and just as important, a failure to close above NDX 2,500, and this is a one day party. Tomorrow may be late celebration with some of the other indices carrying over little higher in celebration, like DOW 10,780 intraday, but for me the vast majority of this countertrend bounce is now over. If it looks like NDX will not get this NDX 2,520 close, let alone NDX 2,500 close, I will re-establish short side of market. Otherwise, I will play it long one more day. Best Regards, J.T. Best regards, J.T.