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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arthur pritchard who wrote (145935)	10/28/1999 3:52:00 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Arthur Re <interesting post!! What part of the industry are you in? Just curious...thanks!! I'm not here much anymore, and don't remember you posting....> I am just a small individual investor. I work in R&D at a private company. Let me justify my last post a bit more. Don't get me wrong, I am not really bearish on stocks. I just find it a bit strange that people have such a hard time with a stock like Dell giving a bit back. I am a bit vary of the MSFT and INTC duopoly as I think it will not continue as strong as it has. INTC's upside in the X-86 CPU is limited as it no longer has the pricing power it had only 2 months ago. Intel's ASP's have fallen sharply for the past 3 quarters, THIS IS A VERY NEW DEVELOPMENT. AMD might be a joke as an investment but it is a serious problem for INTC. Intel's latest problems with the Rambus, 820 chipset and coppermine are very unlike Intel. These are huge issues that are going straight to the bottom line. Perhaps they are feeling the heat from AMD and its Athlon chip, and pushing too hard. MSFT for the first time is facing competition in its OS as well as its Office application. SUNW is reporting a very large amount of downloads for its office application (Star Office). Sun's Star Office is compatible with Microsoft's so businesses will like it. Popularity of Linux speaks for itself. Dell's main problem is its former strength. Fab utilization around the word is high, DRAM as well as other component are seeing pricing strength not seen in years. Equipment spending for fabs are increasing but not at a rate suggesting an end to this fab capacity shortage. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE. Dell has been extremely efficient due to its built to order model that has benefited from ever declining ASP's. This is no longer the case with no end in sight. Dell says it is a short-term issue, I do not buy that for one second. When Dell said everything was fine at its conference call couple of weeks before the warning I was shocked. How can their margin not lower when DRAM spot market prices are skyrocketing? INTC, DELL and MSFT are still great company, but today they are a bit less great that they used to be and the stock price shows it. I just wanted to respond to Jean's post claiming that nothing fundamentally has changed about these issues and they are moving sideways and/or down for no reason. I strongly disagree. These stocks are worth less than before and there are valid explanations for it. Mani P.S. You are right, I barely post here.