To: add who wrote (15491 ) 10/27/1999 7:24:00 PM From: kolo55 Respond to of 27311
The big seller is selling more than 30k per day. They seem to sell, then often buy from a cohort at the same price within seconds. I bought 20k shares one day by hitting the ask when the seller was alone on the ask, and someone I know bought about 15k on the ask in the same time frame. They sold it all, and didn't blink an eye... just re-loaded and kept selling. Unfortunately, if CC structures their selling properly, the provision in the agreement with Valence that limits their daily selling volume is essentially un-enforceable. My estimate for JPMS today is around 150-170k, not 250k as you said in your post. Incidentally 15% of today's volume would be just shy of 60k... and that would be the limit on CC selling today. If you choose, then rack up the selling since the negotiations with Valence collapsed just prior to August 23rd to the present. At 30k a day, plus some extra for some high volume days like today, CC would have sold about 1.50 million shares against the series B by tomorrow. About 700k was converted and sold already, leaving another 800k short against the remaining series B at this time. And then you would be correct... they would have about 220k shares left to sell, to finish completely hedging the series B. It has been my observation though, that the big seller sells in slugs, and after not selling much on Monday and Tuesday, they sold 150-170k today. I still think my estimate is closer to where CC is in terms of shares left against the series B. But in either case, CC has clearly sold a lot of shares against the series B, and will be forced to convert if the share price starts going up above their average short price of slightly less than 5. Paul