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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (31618)	10/27/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I don't want to sound like a broken record here but... Don't under estimate the now record levels of margin debt. Complacency seems very high on the eve of probable benign economic reports tomorrow. I haven't checked the short threads yet, but I'll bet they're active... Short covering today to rally? the market...rally tomorrow to uptick new shorts? Who knows..... Regards, John M.

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (31618)	10/27/1999 9:02:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Fundamental, I dont know if SANTA will save us, but on a statistical basis the SANTA rally does have good probability. That is not to say that it will send the market to new highs, just that there should be some sort of a rally and it is very possible that it is a rally within the bigger downtrend. I do suspect some sort of a mid-term bottom within a month(near the FOMC meeting), but that doesnt mean that new highs will be produced across the board. Complacency is still high so I really wonder if a crash is forthcoming soon. If we are at the beginning of a bear market, Im more inclined that it is the grinding/slow type. From what I hear from the media and read, few are talking about the slow grinding bear market. Most bears are talking about a crash, and most bulls are calling a firm bottom here. Im suspecting that the market will be trading in a fairly large trading range, but that this range has a slight downward slope. If this slightly downward slope is maintained long enough it can still produce a huge selloff from the highs. seeya