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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (31621)	10/27/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Terry, too many people seem to expect a bond rally....it's still too early to call the bottom in bonds imo.note how the Rydex ratio immediately moved down on today's small rally. there's a theory out there that the CB's are close to the end of the tightening cycle and that one should move into bonds now because of that. if that theory proves correct, bonds would indeed be a buy...but we'll see about that. decisionpoint.com the utilities sometimes move as scared money is moving into the stocks with high predictable yields. however, if the utilities continue to move up, i would agree that that bodes well for the overall market. a watchful eye should be kept on them. regards, hb

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (31621)	10/28/1999 1:04:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

From last Friday I said .... I am getting false over sold signals on some beaten down sectors but they are reaching extremely low levels and may be due for either recoveries or dead cat bounces soon. These are the TRX ( rising oil prices make it risky), PNX, RUT, and Utilities. These all have weekly over sold signals but like I said, they are so beaten down and have been falling so quickly I don't put a lot of faith in them yet, might be like catching falling knives. Message 11685465 Now in this post I stated they were at least due a dead cat bounce, the real question now is was this a dead cat bounce or is it a bullish sign we are trying to put in a bottom. On my site I state I am getting more bullish than I have been in a loong time. I still feel strongly that the market is over valued but I also feel that as a stock picker's market, this may be due to give a rally to suck in a few more longs. If so and you can pick the winners and be quick on the trigger when the music stops, I think that if the numbers aren't bad tomorrow, we are heading north in select stocks. The financials, transports, utilities etc all rallied and broke through or are near breaking through important trend resistance lines. If this isn't an over shoot and we can get a little continuation, we may have a real run for a more than 8 hours <ggg> I also have been getting sell signals on the TYX for almost a week so I think rates are about to drop. I am still longer term bearish but feel we may have a relief rally. Brogan made some good points tonight that I have to agree with. >>>The A/D has had the longest downtrend since the 71 bear market, most stocks are nearing bottoming levels, only the generals that have been getting fewer and fewer are still up. Once the generals fall, we could get back to a normal market upswing since the majority of stocks have dropped and have been basing for months and in some cases years. The NDX, OEX and XCI need to fall though before a real bottom ( at least long term) can be in. He thinks the generals need to lose at least 20-30 points in multiples. In all his years of the market, he has never seen a market acting this way so don't feel bad if you are struggling to make sense out of it. ( I often joke that in the last couple years, I have seen the largest drops and the largest rallies in the history of the market but it is true) HE SEES A MAJOR TOP BEING FORMED IN THE NASDAQ while the rest of the market has already put in the first downlegs and is going through a corrective phase in the larger down move. What is important here is that the rest of the market has started to drop but the NASDAQ is still putting in it's wave 5 top and THEN it will start to fall causing mayhem. He feels that the bond is finding it's bottom and sees a pullback to the 5.9% area. <<<<<<< Again I agree with most of what he said tonight. I see many signs we could have a mini blow off as we bounce to sucker the sheeple in. This could be the last hurrah before the NASDAQ starts it's turn at giving back this years gains. I don't want to say I am definitely bullish but I think once the numbers are out tomorrow and of they aren't too bad, we could move up for a week or 2 but only in carefully selected sectors and stocks. One danger sign I see is that the tech sector over all is dead lately. The bull market has been fueled by tech for 17 years and now the leader isn't leading. Rotation to value??? New leadership??? Sign of only a short lived rally???? I am not sure. I will be awaiting the news release tomorrow then playing it one way or the other. The major index charts show we could drop hard, but the sector index charts show upside possible in many areas and for once, the broader market could take part in selective issues. Be careful and quick, Good Luck, Lee