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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomas who wrote (53642)	10/27/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

CL9Z off another 33c to 22.60ask late tonight

To: Tomas who wrote (53642)	10/28/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: Tomas's post on the speculative positions in Crude futures... The prior record "long" speculative positions in Crude Futures was the reason for crude oils price correction and the E&P's not reacting here to the fundamentals. Everyone pointed to the prices being propped up by mere speculative trading and refused to believe in the sustainability of prices, or in OPEC's compliance levels. Now that the speculative level of long positions in crude futures has returned to more normal levels; we return to a focus on the fundamentals of supply and demand. ... and folks; those fundamentals could not be better. "Anomalies" - buy them. When we have concurrent $22+ crude and $3.00 + Nat Gas and have E&P's who have dramatically turned around their balance sheets, or increased production, earnings and cash low; but - are at the near historic bottoms of both their individual and the sector valuation multiples - BUY, BUY, BUY. E&P's are a coiled spring that will be fundamentally supported when sentiment turns. The OSX presented valuations at the recent selloff levels we just saw, ala~ UTI at $15, ESV $15, PGO at $15, HAL at $32 etc. At those levels - the present fundamentals are not nearly as important as the near term expectations. Now at $20 UTI once again, or $20 ESV; one needs to be a stock picker. I love ESV @ sub $17, but at $20 - I will personally pass here and now. This is where the E&P's differ and imho, still have a substantial risk vs. reward advantage given their present fundamental strength and their having no need to depend on Big Oil increasing their cap ex spending etc. The shakeout of the speculation in crude futures was a good thing. Now we are positioned for a supply/demand driven march over $25, with the potential for bubble spike to at, or near $30 very realistically. Nat Gas - is the little train that could... In September, everyone was willing to throw in the towel ! ... said, we were heading back to $2 gas. Well, does anyone remember $3.00 + Nat Gas prior to the "beginning" of the demand/drawdown season ? OEI.... the CEO commenting on growing the company 2,3+ fold over the next few years... those stories are out there... GaryB - remember the days of $5 OEI ? - when OEI "stold" SGO - of whom Fadel Gheit called the single most undervalued offshore exploration asset in the sector; I love this one and have loaded the boat on it, UPR and PXD here during this weakness. ...and remember; OEI et al, can not grow 2,3 fold without RIG being a $60 stock (VBG). ... last call for the Boom 2000 train; now boarding ~ I still think we see the Fund Managers return in masse by late November at the latest and we'll see a quick run through OSX 90 and will ultimately touch OSX 100 before year end at least once, if we don't close there. The overall market merely needs to get this coming rate hike and bias report over with and get back to bidness... ... and just maybe we'll see an OPEC producer, or two have a Y2K oriented production shutdown... I'll gladly endure a month, or two of $2 gas at the pump in exchange for a spike to about $38 crude oil (VBG)...