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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (9060)	10/28/1999 8:47:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Mike, Fool on over to the SEBL board at TMF and view the discussion on 'fair value' for Siebel shares in terms of their growth rate. Whether a 30 percent tank is in anyone's crystal ball is not clear. As Sand Wedge says - "this is getting fun". However, your caution is welcome on the market cap. In the gorilla tribe of the various software arenas, wouldn't a smaller market cap of stocks like SEBL and ITWO tend to fit the mold of their niche specialities? Perhaps, now that SEBL has caught up to its value as the leader (whether or not one believes in the current valuation), one could only expect a growth rate of 15 percent going forward. The odd nut in that formula is what this transition to the Internet is going to do for them and how they might be able to leverage their nine product lines into other people's territory. I wouldn't dare rule out that the game is not over, but Siebel is scoring quite well and is in the groove. BB

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (9060)	10/28/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hi Mike: The following was PM'd to me...about a month old...but I don't recall seeing it here. The correspondent is one of our soon-to-be-addicted lurkers. Before I join the thread, here is a piece of information you can share with people if someone did not already post it last month. I got this from ML's site: Siebel Systems 5.5% 9/15/06 (144A*) On 9/15, Siebel Systems (SEBL, $69.875, no opinion) priced $300MM of a subordinated convertible debenture. The issue came at 5.5% up 27%. Demand appears to have been strong as the deal size increased by $100MM and the terms came in at the least favorable level for investors (price talk had been 5.5-6.0% up 23-27%). The issue matures in seven years and is non-callable for the first three. Neither Moody's or S&P has rated this issue. Based upon our assumptions of 40% volatility (capped) and 1000 basis point credit spread over the 5-year US Treasuries, we estimate a theoretical value of $97 (2.94% rich). [end of ML information] In case people do not know, 144A convertibles are considered restricted issues in that only institutions and private individuals with net worth more than $100 million can buy them.