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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31677)	10/28/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99985

how for a blow-ff to last--i myself am beginning to think is this a blow-off? or have the bulls ruled and the bottom in--i was a bull until July,up to that point i had seen committed bears year in and out eat crow--now i am thinking i will have to eat crow---public desire to run a bull seems to over-rule any economic analysis.max90

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31677)	10/28/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 99985

<How long do blow-off tops take to resolve? (If there is an answer)> Didn't the current one start in 1990?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (31677)	10/28/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Tom, it depends. the blow-off in the Nikkei lasted a whole year before it topped out. the '29 Dow had a blow-off rally that lasted for 3 1/2 months. it began btw out of a consolidation zone that had a slight false downside breakout in both cases before reversing into the blow-off. thus a maximum number of shorts was destroyed by these final rallies. when the time to destroy the bulls finally came round, only very few shorts were able to participate as they were forced to cover by the mad rallies preceding the breakdown. this was especially true in Japan, where the blow-off was gigantic and relentless. looking at an '89 daily chart of the Nikkei you will see that the market had only one very slight correction in that year. it was a short sellers' nightmare. sorry. hb