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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (32954)	10/28/1999 4:30:00 PM
From: Terry D	Respond to of 70976

From Bear - The SIA held their big annual fall forecast dinner last night. All the major executives attended. The tone of the dinner was extremely bullish, not just the presentations but the conversations in the hall way. Business in the semiconductor industry remain very strong. We have not seen this level of optimism in 3 years. This is consistent with our thesis that we are one year now into what we think is going to be a very strong recovery. The industry raised its forecast for 1999 to 15% and for 2000 to 20%, this compares to our current numbers of 17% and 26%. Given that the SIA historically consistently underestimates, this makes us confident that our numbers are pretty good, and possibly even conservative. Bottom Line: We think the SIA's numbers should be read as very optimistic and good news for the business. Semiconductor stocks have been weak recently. We think the reasons are threefold: 1) Investor concerns over Y2K, which suddenly has become an issue again. 2) A risk for inventory correction early next year. 3) Technical weakness and profit taking as we approach year-end. Bottom Line: We think a buying opportunity is being created. We are not quite there yet but we think an outstanding buying opportunity will exist in 3 to 6 months.