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To: clochard who wrote (72419)	10/28/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Steve, i'm not sure if i agree. whether a recession is likely or not can only be answered after the Y2K event. allow me also to point out that at the previous mania peak in 1929 a recession also looked highly unlikely. corporate profits were at a record high that year...nevertheless, underneath all the good news the rot had already set in. who's to say that the same isn't happening now? households and corporations are indebted like never before...both on an absolute and relative basis. so the groundwork for a painful recession is certainly in place. the only question is when will it start? my guess is it will surprise us all when it comes and will be quite sudden and harsh. at the beginning of it we will get a sharp downdraft in stock prices, that will be the signal.