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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 10K a day who wrote (82256)	10/28/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 164684

Your post was only somewhat coherent but I will respond anyway: I don't try to get too precise with valuation, its only one factor of what makes a stock attractive. Valuation today is based on todays consensus opinion. Valuation tommorrow is based on tomorrow's consensus opinion. Valuation is important but its the change in consensus that is even more important. AOL is now owned by S&P500 managers who want to get exposure to the internet. They missed the first $100 billion and were willing to do so because their goal is to beat the S&P500 and AOL wasn't a member of the S&P until 1/1/99. My bet is that AMZN will one day be owned by S&P500-based managers as a way to get exposure to consumer ecommerce and the stock will have a market valuation north of $100b. Value isn't the only thing that matters. Its important but you have to put it into context. We live in a competitive world where fund managers are paid to beat their competitors. It doesn't matter if AOL's or AMZN's true worth is 1x revenues or 20x revenues, the stock is going to trade with regard to its popularity among money managers and most money managers that still have a job are not solely focused on valuation. This creates an environment where if you focus just on valuation, you are at a serious handicap. AMZN is arguably the biggest beneficiary of consumer ecommerce in the world. Its stock will trade with sentiment regarding ecommerce so long as AMZN doesn't screw up. My opinion is they won't and sentiment toward ecommerce will continue to increase. Hence I am long AMZN. Valuation? Your opinion is yours and my opinion is mine. I say valuation is going higher, much higher.