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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (2811)	10/28/1999 11:17:00 PM
From: quidditch	Respond to of 13582

We owe Wu Jichuan's ascendancy to Slick Willie's walking out on the deal with Zhu. So where does that leave us? With China Telecom (Wu's once and still fiefdom) raising $2.4 billion to spread the GSM Gospel, and with Wu trashing Unicom's hopes to raise funds for the CDMA Gospel. That's what it's looking like today; dunno about 2-5 years out. Clinton is crying that he made a mistake in July. The palette has turned slightly more pink in China since then, and he's not going to be able to resurrect the deal that Zhu laid out for him during the summer. A decided, if hopefully temporary, negative. Maybe we can sneak Maurice into Wu's bed chamber, a la the mouse in Dumbo calling out the ringmaster's dream for Dumbo to be the star. Steve

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (2811)	10/29/1999 6:55:00 AM
From: qdog	Respond to of 13582

Caxton, I'll impart some elderly observations that comes from reflection of dealing in telecom overseas for ~15 years, mostly in third world countries. China is still an authoritative country. Most places that I've worked that had strongmen governments, communications was an evil in the hands of the masses. Anything that was attempted for a private company was viewed with suspicion. In some places, the phonelines were tapped in the crudest of fashion, mainly just paralleling a terminating recording devices across the line, with caused about a 6 db drop in levels. One time I was so frustrated by this that I offered to tap the line in a manner that they could get what they wanted and I could achieve what I was doing. Even handed them a drawing in a meeting to say if they did it in a certain way, it wouldn't adversely affect my attempts. It worked!! Work so well, I had a better time getting things like a private satellite link to the mothership back in the world. China is at a crossroads. They still want to maintain the status quo of strong government control politically, but want the benefits of a free market. Fascinating expieriment, but doom to fail. Free market thrive on exchange of idea's and the need to be rapid in decisions made. All is facilitated by good communications pipes. This news about China isn't exactly new. They have been on this for sometime about the many partnerships that has developed. There is probably plenty of suspicion of abilities of spying and the such. Then there is the backlash of the WTO, various saber rattling of our Congress and general government missteps, such as the embassy bombing. A real nice witch's brew that makes China less of a slamdunk then selling them syrup and razorblades.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (2811)	10/29/1999 7:12:00 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

It seems they are going after the carriers not the equiptement makers. NT, MOT, NOK, and ERICY all have manufacturing concern's in CHINA. They have not had problems yet. Is it just a matter of time? Seems a big liability for Ericy and Nokia.