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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (72589)	10/28/1999 9:14:00 PM
From: Ken98	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

<<U.S. M-2 money supply up $7.1 bln October 18 week NEW YORK, Oct 28 Reuters) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $7.1 billion in the October 18 week to $4,598.3 billion, the Federal Reserve said. The broader M-3 measure rose $14.0 billion to $6,295.7 billion. M-1 was down $100 million to $1,096.8 billion, the Fed said. The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $4,594.2 billion versus $4,592.8 billion in the previous week.>> In addition to printing $$, the bubble can be fed by an expanding supply of credit. The record breaking levels of margin debt are evidence of this.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (72589)	10/28/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Terry, currently i'm also in the more printing camp...it's what easy Al's Fed does best. i'm saying blow-off rally because no long term mania has ended in a long drawn-out topping process...they all had a final perpendicular rally that marked the end. i believe this is a necessary precondition for a BK, as sentiment still has to be bullish for the BK to have a chance. consolidation periods lead to an increase in bearishness, and so do obvious "topping" formations. just look at the Consencus Inc. data and Investors Intelligence poll and the fact that short interest is at a record high...that's not how a mania ends. it ends surprisingly, after an initial break that's seen as just another bump in the road, bullishness is still high, and all of a sudden the bottom falls out without anybody expecting it. as long as there are hordes of people pointing out that the chart correlates with '29, '87 or what have you, and point out the many parallels to these periods, there will be enough money on the sidelines and enough shorts to fuel further rallies... when the endgame is at hand, almost everybody must be convinced that this time it really IS different and that stocks really have only one way to go, namely UP. the final blow-off is where the shorts get wiped out once and for all...remember '87? after the initial break we got a retracement rally that made it look as if everything was going to be O.K....nobody predicted a crash. and then it happened. remember Japan? Japan was "different", it's p/e ratios didn't count, there was a never-ending stream of funds into the market...that's the type of backdrop we need...the doubters must be convinced, then we can tank, not before. hb