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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (31768)	10/28/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Well, to me, it means he's not tipping his hand yet....I think the Fed tightens the 1/4 point next month by taking the position that, although Corporate America can't raise prices (even if costs go up) because they are afraid of losing market share, the economy still doesn't need to have the impetus it needed before (taking back that third cut)....I also think they will maintain their bias toward tightening until clearer signs of either wage pressures moving into prices, consumer demand accelerating even more due to the "wealth effect", or some world event causes the world economic picture to drastically change....I think he is saying that the bond market appears to be doing the job of slowing things down due to higher rates, but he is uncertain that this is enough.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (31768)	10/28/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 99985

Lee, excellent site for practicing bear market strategy... -g- junior.apk.net

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (31768)	10/28/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Respond to of 99985

L3, am glad am not alone in having difficulty deciphering Greenspeak. But allow me a summary statement of what I think he said: Productivity gains from PCs and Internet are being accepted by AG as the counter force to inflation for the time being, but AG is unsure if productivity gains can continue to keep inflation in check. He notes that increased interest rates have already diminished the ratio of net-worth-to-income for the average household. I take this to mean that AG is satisfied that the two interest-rate tightening moves have already produced the desired "softening" of consumer confidence to the point that additional rate hikes are unnecessary -- as long as productivity gains keep inflation in check. The street interprets this to mean AG is done with rate hikes for a while at least, hence the relief. Tulvio

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (31768)	10/29/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Just wanted to post that option buyers are NOT trusting this move. I just ran the OEX open interest and the put buyers were fading yesrday's move strongly while it appears that not many calls were being sought after. I have neutral ground all the way up to 695 and there are 30K more puts than calls below that neutral ground thus biasing the market up even more. They may keep it up here plus more for a while longer than I thought or else they are just trying to give themselves plenty of room before the employment numbers and FOMC. Have to run, Good Luck, Lee