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To: PaulM who wrote (44276)	10/29/1999 5:45:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116816

WAS THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT LEAKED? By JOHN CRUDELE ------------------------------------------------------------------------ WATCHING the stock market react to any release from the Labor Department is a lot like watching pro wrestling. There's a lot of action, but in the end you know it's all phony. So sit back, traders, and get ready to be body slammed by inflation in the weeks ahead - especially the people who seemed to know ahead of time. Wall Street became orgasmic yesterday because the department's labor cost index rose 0.8 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30 and not the 0.9 percent increase that traders expected. The index had been up a troublesome 1.1 percent in the second quarter. That one-tenth of 1 percent difference between "reality" and expectations was deemed to be worth a 227.64-point gain yesterday in the Dow. And it also gave the bond market one of its best lifts in months, sending interest rates sharply lower. I put the word "reality" in quotation marks because there is the reality that you and I know and the reality that Washington tries to foist on the public. The biggest foisters of them all are at the Labor Department, where shoddy surveying methods, political arm twisting and plain old-fashion spin control have made the millions it spends annually on economic statistics one of the biggest wastes of taxpayers' money. Let me start by saying that the less-than-expected gain in the employment cost index will not sway the Federal Reserve in deciding whether or not to raise interest rates next month. In fact, the stock market's urgent need to rise on such spurious numbers will make Alan Greenspan more inclined to boost rates in his fight against asset inflation - a.k.a. the stock market bubble. But let's look at yesterday's employment cost index. In the first place, the real ECI released yesterday by Labor was actually up 0.847 percent from the last quarter. In other words, just another 0.003 percent would have rounded off to precisely the 0.9 percent that Wall Street was expecting. Even if Greenspan cared about this number, do you really think a difference of only 0.003 percent is going to dictate monetary policy? There are also problems with the way the ECI is gathered. The employment cost number is tallied from the same type of survey that produces the notoriously inaccurate job growth figures each month. As I've been saying, the monthly job numbers include estimates for companies that Labor couldn't reach or firms that wouldn't cooperate. And being a government agency beholden to politicians for financing, do you really believe Labor will ever plug in a pessimistic guestimate for these non-cooperators? But Wall Street cares about the ECI. It cares so much, in fact, that yesterday's number appears to have been leaked to traders a day early. Late Wednesday afternoon, as both the stock and bond markets were rallying, word was getting around that the ECI would come in lower than Wall Street expected. It's amazing how lucky some traders get. In fact, the rumor that somebody got inside information was so widespread that the Labor Department - which has accidentally leaked data prematurely on its website in the past - was forced to put out a press statement. Reuters quoted the Labor Department as denying that the ECI was issued ahead of schedule. "This is highly unlikely given the safeguards we now have in place," a spokesman was quoted as saying. Interesting, but not enough. Maybe the ECI wasn't accidentally put on the website early or officially released prematurely. But what about a good old-fashioned word-of-mouth leak from someone with access to the data to someone who can make a buck from inside information? Which someone? Maybe the investment house that placed an order for 2,500 bond futures contracts well ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ECI release yesterday and made itself a ton of money. Is there a labor cost number that the markets should be watching? Yep. Watch for the what's called the "insured unemployment figure," which comes out every Thursday. That's people who are out of work and eligible for jobless insurance. The figure is so low that it's troubling inflation watchers, including the Fed. And keep an eye on the growth rate of total employment that comes from the more-accurate household survey done by the Labor Department. It too is pointing to inflationary wage increases ahead. nypostonline.com

To: PaulM who wrote (44276)	10/29/1999 5:57:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116816

I am amazed at how passive most people are..it is fascinating watching the US evolve into a two class society.. It is also fascinating that here we are in the information age and look at the information we get I guess economic warfare costs a lot less lives than usual warfare.. maybe it is preferable than the other.. I assume that one of these days we will hit a brick wall.. just saw that there is now a website greekproducts.com ..directly from Greece.. I wonder how many middle men have already felt the pressure of the internet.. also heard that internet has created about 750,000 jobs..(I missed the important ingredient..whether than was for the year or what) ps how are government raises and pension plans related to government numbers..we know about ss.. a friend suggested that the compilers of the statistics have a vested stake..

To: PaulM who wrote (44276)	10/30/1999 7:00:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116816

biz.yahoo.com "In a long-awaited report set for release next week, U.S. regulators will conclude that the multi-trillion dollar market in privately-arranged financial derivatives does not need government regulation, people familiar with the report said." who knows maybe nobody has enough knowledge to figure out what is happening...but with that kind of insurance,how distorted can actual investments be.. amazing what juggling acts are involved behind the scenes biz.yahoo.com ps it is going to be fascinating to watch how the government treats Gates now..what percentage does Microsoft now have of the Dow..how many dow points..Microsoft now will probably become a player's delight