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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (77667)	10/28/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571398

Re: "RE <<On Flash Intel is showing a massive increase in capacity-it looks like the glory days for flash are coming to end by the time 2000 is over....>> I'M NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN; I DON'T KNOW IF THIS HAS BEEN POSTED PREVIOUSLY, BUT ITS CALLING FOR INCREASES IN FLASH PRODUCTION BEYOND 2000: " I think Charles meant (correct me if I'm wrong) that Intel is increasing capacity so the other suppliers will not be able to enjoy high margins from a capacity constrained market. EP

To: tejek who wrote (77667)	10/29/1999 1:29:00 AM
From: Goutam	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1571398

Ted, re: <I'M NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN; I DON'T KNOW IF THIS HAS BEEN POSTED PREVIOUSLY, BUT ITS CALLING FOR INCREASES IN FLASH PRODUCTION BEYOND 2000: > I agree with Chuck, that Flash glory days may be limited to one more year, because every Flash manufacturer is rushing to increase the capacity by a great amount. But, the huge demand for Flash couldn't have come at any better time than this for AMD. During this Athlon ramp up, Flash demand and revenue is going to help AMD financially as well as improving the fab capacity utilization, immensely. I recall from the AMD conference call, there was a mention of further low double digit growth in the Flash business in Q4'99 . My impression is that it could easily be in the range of 25% - 35% ($250M - $270M in Q4'99 vs $206M in Q3'99). Regards, Goutama

To: tejek who wrote (77667)	10/29/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1571398

Ted, <<<On Flash Intel is showing a massive increase in capacity-it looks like the glory days for flash are coming to end by the time 2000 is over....>> I'M NOT SO SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN; I DON'T KNOW IF THIS HAS BEEN POSTED PREVIOUSLY, BUT ITS CALLING FOR INCREASES IN FLASH PRODUCTION BEYOND 2000: > Semiconductor business (or any business) is a matter of supply and demand. The problem with the semiconductor is that it takes a while to bring new capacity on-line. So, in boom times, invariably every vendor adds more capacity than they can realistically win. (Many a times I have seen cumulative forecasts of the players anticipated market shares add up to 200% of the available market) As in every boom, I see flash supply coming in much faster than demand. All the majors (INTC, AMD, ATML) are adding Flash capacity big time. I have also heard of some second tier European and Asian fabs planning significant capacity increases. All this capacity should start catching up with the demand by second or third quarter of 2000 and should ovewhelm the demand (and depress ASPs) by Q4 2000 or Q1 2001. For all I know, new applications of flash (like MP3 players) could take off real fast and, coupled with booming cell phone market, keep the supply/demand equation in check. So, I will keep my eyes open to monitor the situation. The analyst community does not look that far, so, with any discipline I should be able to get out before someone calls out "fire". In the mean time I am having a banner day with ATML and other semi stocks (picked it up ATML between 32 and 35 and a lot of my other favorite semis at similar fire-sale prices following Intel's Q3 results). AMD has disappointed so far with the only saving grace being the options volatility that helps my aggressive call and put writing. Chuck