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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9567)	10/29/1999 8:44:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: "..plenty of hawkish comments .. but the market does not care..." + the Bloomberg take: Agree on Greenspan speech. Apparently, the market wants to read the words wearing rose colored glasses (right now). Hence the futures overreaction. Frankly, I still think there is a better than even chance of a rate increase at the Nov. FOMC meeting. Still some time for more data to be digested (& plenty of time after Halloween for the rubber chicken circuit Fed guys to spin a negative web & whipsaw the market to the downside). - Summary/excerpts of some of his speech: Greenspan said he saw no evidence that productivity gains are about to slow or disappear, but if they did, the effect on the economy in the medium term could be "profound." If at that point, a tight labor market causes wages to rise, he said, the productivity gains may be too weak to hold down inflation. "As a consequence, unit costs would likely rise, pressuring profit margins and prices." Greenspan also said the growing U.S. current account deficit is a potential obstacle to long-term price stability. For now, he said, the country has managed to meet the demand caused by rapid economic growth by importing goods. Those imports, in turn have been financed by ample capital inflows, he said. But that can't last forever. "For the recent past, direct foreign investment inflows have almost matched the total current account deficit," he said. "But a continued widening of that deficit could eventually raise financing difficulties, ultimately limiting import growth." - ...and from Bloomberg: bloomberg.com - I think the following statement is a good summary of his speech: >Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday hailed a technology-led U.S. economic expansion marked by strong productivity gains but insisted the pace of growth must slow.<

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9567)	10/29/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

but the market does not care As usual Justa, you have accurately if not incisively cut through a lot of noise to identify important fundamental warning signs that continue to haunt this market. Naturally, I have a different spin: All, or at least most of this has already been factored in the market and is evident by the lackluster YTD performance of the broad market and the bear market performance of the advance-decline line. If it is true that the market looks out six to nine months and reflects conditions prospectively, then current and near term fundamentals may account for this generally mediocre market performance. But what is the market projecting for the next six to nine months? Awhile back you posted that you had purchased Point and Figure Charting by Tom Dorsey, in fact, as I recall it was from Buy.com. I don't know if you have read and familiarized yourself with this analysis technique yet, but I continue to maintain that it is worth the effort for anyone participating the market. The current condition of the various Point & Figure timing indicators, specifically the High-Low index, the DJ-Bond index and the NYSE Bullish Percent Index are all at levels from where Major rallies have begun in the past. My own bullishness on this thread in the past few weeks is due in part to these patterns. There is no guarantee that we won't crash and burn from here, or that we won't continue to grind lower, but I think that despite the problems that you have identified in your post, if the market starts up and makes higher highs and higher lows, the very tradable probability is that we are back in full blown bull market mode. As for me, I have to go into town today to get a haircut. I tried all of the Internet sites and not one of them offered this service over the net. Perhaps and opportunity? A@virtualhairstylists.com