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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (3577)	10/29/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Thomas J Pittman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

All, I have been recently trying to understand the hold vs sell thing on LRCX and I came up with something I thought was pretty interesting last night that i wanted to share. I looked at high and low PEs over the last 6 years and you can imagine, they were pretty much everywhere. I think we have already established that PEs are not the thing to base valuations on in this sector. So I looked at high and low PSRs, but these too, were pretty much widely scattered. But then, I looked at Forward High PSRs. That is i took the high price for a fiscal year and compared that to the the actual revenue pershare that was received in the NEXT year. To my surprise, these numbers were fairly stable and ranged only from about 2.0 to 2.6. (one caveat, here, I am doing this from memory since I left my stuff at home) but still, I thought that was pretty interesting. I think i may not have a real accurate number on shares outstanding but I had pulled some information (to nearest million) from an old SnP sheet that I had. Anyway, looking at the proejected revenue (using the two forcasts recently posted here), it seems that I may have found my sell signal. I will check the numbers again tonight. This is all a hand calculation for me, does anyone know of a place where some of this would be available on line? Thoughts are appreciated. Still wavering, J