Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ld5030 who wrote (16499)	10/29/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: MIKE REDDERT	Respond to of 29970

<just wondering why the sudden outburst of emotion.> Hehehehehehe... this "outburst of emotion" has been here since the beginning... nothing sudden about it. I haven't quite figured out whether it's a bunch of grouchy investors that forgot how to set a stop loss and rode this puppy down from heaven to the depths of hell, or something else. At any rate, take it with a "grain of salt". Smile and be happy... you said nothing that should offend anyone. Mike

To: ld5030 who wrote (16499)	10/29/1999 9:58:00 PM
From: Solid	Respond to of 29970

Id- <just wondering why> Message 11747951 Nothing sudden, looks like reading the tea leaves. Seems pretty cut and dry reasoning to me. Timing. Positioning. Presence. At this point, we are really waiting for some actual news from the open access 'judges.' When any real ruling comes along in favor of hands-off, at least for a while...drop a few weights off the stock. Then we have Q4 around the corner with + earnings, more + growth, more stores carrying and selling cable install kits...more weight off the stock. Then you have faster acceleration of sub growth all next year, now only a few short months away and tax selling behind us...slim fast kick'in in, LaSorta move over. Anywhere along here throw in a possible major deal or any sign of capitulation or anxiety from the AOL camp and we look back longingly at the nostalgic 30's. How long can you downplay the smoke from the cable BB volcano? The caretaker at spirit lake ignored it and he is a permanent part of the landscape now at Mt. St. Helens.

To: ld5030 who wrote (16499)	10/29/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

The outburst was motivated because a sea change in the nature of every trade data took place yesterday and continued today. Actually the flow nature reversed just before the last rally, but it wasn't sufficiently convincing. It had the old high inelasticity with no work done translating price routine. Now the stock is doing work even though the work function hasn't bottomed. What is work? Absorption of a lot of supply without price concession and a persistence of smart public buying. The smart public is typified by the 600 - 1900 share orders. This level of transaction is reliably skilled. I have a lot of theories why, but I'm not convinced they're true. The best theory is that in this scale the public traders have to be careful because it's their own dough on the line and it's a pretty good chunk to put say 100G's down for a trade. By trade I mean a swing trade, not an intraday scalp. The latter avoids risk and so is subject to the negative expected return. The former has risk and so gets positive with knowledge and conviction to hold. "You can't succeed by taking a 3 point profit in a bull market" --- Jesse Livermore. The patzer public, 100 - 200 sometimes can determine the action if there is a lot of it and it is mostly in one direction. What's it doing? Just about net zero and not much amplitude in the runs. The blocks(10k+) read like this: 27 on down tick (-1) 18 on zero minus tick (-1/2) 7 on zero plus tick (1/2) 12 on plus tick (1) The selling that caused price to edge down wasn't from institutional blocks, it came from the 2000 - 5000 group. The sold blocks didn't give up much price concession and neither did the intermediate size, but the quantity of the latter forced the buy side to retreat. They didn't retreat much. It was as though they were trying to invite more selling in order to accumulate more shares. This is classic gap filling action. Just ask yourself, is it easy to buy a stock which has been run up or is it easier to buy a stock that is low and seems like it wants to rise? The surprising thing is that people don't want it unless it's screaming upward. That's a completely justified attitude to have. It means there is both inelasticity with respect to marginal demand at progressively higher prices and that there is elasticity with respect to marginal supply at all the prices passed. ATHM isn't there yet and that has you a little irritated. You need patience with this stock. As for cryptic posts they're cryptic to some and not so to others. The more education you have the less cryptic they are. This one is a little difficult if you don't know what a "tick" is, but you get the drift. I try to be accurate and give meaningful info with varying results. It isn't always possible to do so given the mountain of data generated by one stock. To follow and understand every trade data intraday the most I can handle is 5 assisted with sophisticated computers whirring away around me. All it does is tell you what people are doing. That's it. A perfect machine can't do much better, because better means know the future and that isn't possible.