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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (9576)	10/29/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "I think the bond and stock market may be happiest with a 1/4 point increase with a return to neutral bias." Agreed. But does Al want to make the market all that happy? Re: "The Fed may see a taking back of last year's three hikes as appropriate to do the job." It could end up that way. But the Fed. is driven by the numbers. Good grief, last night Greenspan said the Fed. was, in effect, riding by the seat of its pants in trying to figure out this economy. If the message received by the market was that he has this all figured out to a three hike deal then the market is skating on thin ice. Greenspan would never show his hand like this. He knows he must go with the flow of numbers. He did not show his hand last night IMO. Re: "The P/C ration and Investors Intelligence survey which was yelling buy in the face of questionable fundamentals proved again don't get excited by questionable fundamentals when everyone seems gloomy." The P/C ratio was never all that bullish. The Investors Intelligence was a positive contrary indicator as you suggested but this reading can remain low for extended periods as it did in 1994 in the face of rising rates. And so if the economy does not slow and Greenspan and/or the bond market must slow it, the market will take another trip down even if the number of bulls is low.