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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Carragher who wrote (8010)10/30/1999 6:33:00 PM
From: t36  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17183
 
then there is this article***************i found this on the gorrilla thread....DownSouth (9213 )
From: Jill
Saturday, Oct 30 1999 1:33PM ET
Reply # of 9249

Nice CBS marketwatch article on our favorite king:

EMC's Ruettgers chases cool of Valley

By Mike Tarsala, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:15 PM ET Oct 30, 1999 NewsWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Mike Ruettgers, chief executive of EMC Corp.,
traveled to San Francisco this week to bang a drum for his storage company whose
voice is often lost in the din of Silicon Valley.

Hopkinton, Mass.- based EMC is one of the most successful stocks in the 1990s,
sharing company with Cisco Systems Inc. as one of the greatest gainers on the Standard
& Poor's 500 Index.

Some see EMC as a soon-to-be "blue chip" technology company. Others see that
accolade is somewhat an insult. "They have a $67 billion market cap; I'd say they
already are blue chip," said Paul G. Fox, an analyst with Banc of America Securities in
San Francisco. "Take a look at Compaq's $33 billion market cap, and we think of them
as a blue chip."

EMC's performance hardly ever comes into question. The company regularly boasts 30
percent yearly revenue growth or better. In its September quarter, profit rose 54
percent to $309.6 million, or 29 cents a share, from $201.3 million from a split-adjusted
19 cents in the year-ago period.

Ruettgers says that EMC is among the few innovative companies that provide essential
technology building blocks. He makes a point, as EMC is viewed as the market leader
for the type of high-end storage that's fast becoming a necessity for electronic
commerce.

But EMC (EMC: news, msgs) rarely is mentioned in the same sentence as the West
Coast technology heavyweights of its ilk, such as networking giant Cisco (CSCO: news,
msgs), computer maker Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, msgs) and database
software maker Oracle Corp. (ORCL: news, msgs). That's despite storage becoming
one of the most critical e-commerce components, analysts say.

Focus on storage

"There are three elements to online success -- storage, computing and communications,"
said Roger Cox, an analyst with Framingham, Mass.-based International Data Corp.
And storage has been the focal point for success."

Why can't EMC take a bigger chunk of the technology spotlight? Analysts say it's
because more than a matter of geography that separates EMC from its Silicon Valley
peers. EMC is missing spunk. Pick the word -- hipness, style bravado. It's kept EMC
at arm's length from the California crowd.

No doubt, Cisco, Sun and Oracle came to dominate the royalty of techdom through
foresight, business focus, tight operational control, a la EMC. But the West Coast
companies became household names by making dull business equipment -- networking
gear, back-end computers and databases -- snazzy.

Blame Ruettgers for EMC being uncool. One analyst describes him as strong, yet shy.
He isn't known to have the charm of John Chambers, chief executive of Cisco, the sharp
tongue of Scott McNealy, Sun's chief, or the swagger of Larry Ellison, who sits at
Oracle's top post.

Catching cool

Still, John, Scott and Larry may be rubbing off on their Hopkinton counterpart. During
his California trip, the EMC boss showed that he could be brash with industry
predictions, somewhat vitriolic in talking about the competition and perhaps even more
bullish than ever about his company's opportunities.

"Right now, he sees that one of the ways these West Coast companies gained in their
industries is not only by doing well, but by being recognized as trend-setters," said Laura
Conigliaro, an analyst with Goldman Sachs & Co. in New York. "That's the piece of the
recipe he's been trying to work on."

During his West Coast tour, Ruettgers made several bold predictions that mimicked the
type of bombastic comments for which McNealy and Ellison are known.

Whether it's regarding the growth of server computing or blasting software leader
Microsoft, McNealy and Ellison are the Silicon Valley Soundbites. They are credited
with making statements that sound ludicrous, then sometimes are viewed as visionary a
few years later, Conigliaro says.

Flameout.com

Ruettgers' first prognostication: At least one major Internet ".com" service will fail in the
next 12 months because of poorly planned technology infrastructure. "I don't think
there's any question that this is going to happen," Ruettgers said.

He then used the dire comment in unveiling the company's ControlCenter software,
which he says is key to eliminating data disasters. Expected to cost between $100,000
and $200,000 per installation, ControlCenter helps monitor, manage and tweak the
network storage systems used by large corporations and Internet service companies.

EMC is hoping that ControlCenter, along with its other key storage software, will be
products companies can't live without.

"Once people put them in, there are no reasonable substitutes for them," Ruettgers said.
"And they perform such a critical function."

His second prognostication: Venture capitalists soon will start providing funds only to
the Internet companies that use a list of "approved" infrastructure technologies.

Assuming investors will want EMC on the list, Ruettgers then used the prediction to
introduce an "EMC Proven" branding campaign that could help lock out high-end
storage competitors. It's a similar strategy to Intel's "Intel Inside" program. And it has a
ring, analysts say, similar to Sun's ".com" and Oracle's "Business On-Line" messages.

Ruettgers showed poise, as well as some teeth, when discussing perhaps the most
touchy subject for his company in 1999; its relationship with Hewlett-Packard Co.
(HWP: news, msgs) Earlier this year, EMC lost H-P, its largest reseller. The two
companies had announced an three-year reseller relationship in January. Then in May,
H-P changed plans, decided to sell Hitachi storage products under the H-P name.

To EMC's credit, the company's direct sales team scrambled, and managed to meet
revenue projections without a hiccup.

Ruettgers acknowledged that the H-P move was a big surprise, calling the computer
maker's move a "Pearl Harbor." He added that H-P breached its contract with EMC,
but that he didn't plan any legal action against his one-time customer. He said he'd let the
market do the talking, rather than the lawyers.

For their part, H-P executives at the time said that EMC charged too much, and that
H-P wanted a bigger chunk of lucrative storage profits. Storage hardware often
commands profit margins of 50 percent or more.

Ruettgers flatly said that H-P made a mistake.

Today on CBS MarketWatch
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Updated:
10/30/99 12:39:22 PM ET

Ours is better

"I can't believe their business is better today than when we were working with them,"
Ruettgers said. "However, our business is better. They should have been looking at their
operating margin and not the gross margin, because there's no way that their operating
margin (for storage) is as good as it was."

With H-P worries now in the past, EMC's next big challenge will be to move squarely
into the competitive market for midrange storage, where H-P, Sun, IBM and others are
strong. To help, EMC earlier this month completed its $1.1 billion acquisition of Data
General Corp.

Ruettgers gave a candid status report on the merger.

Data General's midrange Clariion storage products are being folded into EMC's main
product line. And Data General's Aviion servers are becoming part of an independent
unit within EMC.

Ronald Skates, who had been Data General's chief executive, will help with the
transition, then will retire. EMC reported this month that Robert Dutkowski, who had
been with EMC since 1997, will lead the new server group.

In addition, EMC announced that Frank Hauck, who had been with EMC for nine
years, will oversee the integration of Data General's storage division.

It won't be an easy task. The first order of business will be making Data General's
services business profitable -- something Ruettgers said hasn't happened in Data
General's history. Hauck's next step, Ruettgers says, will be to get the Clariion products
into EMC's distribution and services units. In addition, Ruettgers plans to drop some
unprofitable hardware products from the Data General line.

It remains to be seen how Data General will benefit EMC. But the acquisition was
worth it, as it created about $1.3 billion in shareholder value, reports Amit Chopra, an
analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.

Not counting any revenue from the acquisition, EMC will grow to a $10 billion company
by 2001 from a $4 billion company in 1998, Ruettgers predicted. In another Ruettgers
coup while out West, he made it a point to snuggle up to longtime partner Oracle in
announcing a joint development operation.

Shared vision

Oracle announced this week that it will form an EMC Strategic Business Unit. It marks
the first time Oracle plans an internal division to cater to any other company, other than
the computer makers it already serves, including Sun and H-P. "Oracle and EMC share
a vision ... and it's incumbent on everyone in this industry to work together," Ruettgers
said.

Mike Rocha, an Oracle senior vice president, said he didn't know the exact amount of
the investment in EMC. But as many as 24 engineers will be working on EMC-related
projects from Oracle's Redwood Shores, Calif. headquarters, he said.

More announcements are planned between EMC and Oracle, Rocha says. The
companies will announce in the next few months that they have jointly developed what
Rocha says will be the "largest data warehouse in the world." He wouldn't provide
further details.

Who knows? If Ruettgers can keep his West Coast edge, he'll be making the Oracle
announcement with Ellison -- and perhaps even showing up Ellison's showmanship



To: John Carragher who wrote (8010)10/30/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd  Respond to of 17183
 
JC: This guy sold his EMC position because after Y2K there will be less demand for the service. Does the year 2000 bring with it some sort of King's X on system crashes. Wow this is going to be a great 1000 years. I am amazed that such idiots have so much control over other peoples money.JFD



To: John Carragher who wrote (8010)10/31/1999 8:13:00 AM
From: Lynn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17183
 
Hello John. To quote from part of the _Barrons_ article you shared:

[quote begin]
But James A.M. Douglas, of Douglas Nayes in New York, looks at things a
bit differently...

But EMC? "I think it's a Y2K fear
story -- fear of losing your data,"
Douglas says. "We sold our position,
although we did very well. EMC
remains a great company, but I don't
see it achieving the growth rate in the
future that it enjoyed in the past."
[end quote]

First, I have never heard of Douglas Nayes before so I read this company's opinion of EMC without taking it seriously. Basically, I only pay attention to research or opinions made by companies and/or analysts I have both heard of and also know are highly regarded concerns.

Second, any time I read something that leads one to think storage requirements are ultimately finite I chuckle. This Douglas fellow, from his comment that EMC is basically a Y2K story, seems to hold this position. I, on the other hand, hold a totally opposite position. In a real world example, its the difference in world views between a NY City apartment dweller and a home owner. The apartment dweller has a mind set of storage capacity ultimately being finite and adjusts things accordingly. The home owner, however, starts off with seemingly ample storage facilities which mysteriously fills-up. Except for people who like a minimalist, spartan existence, after a few years, people never seem to have enough storage area. Rural non-farming people who have barns or HUGE garages on their properties are the worst: ask to look inside one of their barns some time unless you can figure things out by all the overflow outside.

Its the same for companies in the Information Age. They start off with **more** than they assume will be needed for years. They quickly learn they need more, that their storage needs are ultimately infinite, [hopefully] bringing back repeat customers to EMC.

EMC is the snack food company of the IF: deal with it one then come back for more.

Regards,

Lynn