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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lrrp who wrote (32985)	10/30/1999 9:29:00 AM
From: Fred Levine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

IMO, as a VLT holder of AMAT, timing is impossible. I have watched informed investors, e.g., Terri S. and JS, look at the immediate term and miss significant opportunities. As long as the demand for chips increases, and the uses for them expands, I'll be in AMAT. If other companies have better systems, or the technology leaves AMAT behind, I'm out. At this point, I see no reason why the future isn't positive. Of course, there will always be profit-taking, and unpredictable events such as the President unzipping or an earthquake. These, IMO, will not deter the VLT direction of a company with a huge research budget and enormous cash. Just my opinion --fred

To: lrrp who wrote (32985)	10/31/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

lrrp, you need to guess when SEMI orders irrevocably turn down. Then sell a few weeks before that. That's the only way I know of to get out near the top. Last time this was accompanied with lots of reassuring noises by analysts and others that the future looked bright. I'm not being flip or cynical and it may be different this time. In case you missed the relevant charts... Message 11739680 Gottfried

To: lrrp who wrote (32985)	10/31/1999 2:17:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

lrrp, another way to try to time the top price is to check the First Call 'earnings valuation report' [2 pages]. It shows clearly [for AMAT it works well], how price responds to earnings EXPECTATIONs, not actual earnings. But you still need to make a guess. If you can't get it, will e-mail at request. Gottfried

To: lrrp who wrote (32985)	10/31/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Picking tops is much harder than picking bottoms. I don't think there's anyone who has the "magic bullet". I did, however, compile some links to posts which were sounding notes of caution around the time of the last top: Message 4600022 I would caution, however, that the last top was atypical in some ways. Rather than trying to pick the top, my advice is that when your jaw is dropping because of the gains you've made, it's time to take some profits. One idea would be whenever the stock doubles, take half off the table, and when the stock falls by half, double your number of shares held. In this sector, that's about as close to a money machine as you could get.