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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Hurst who wrote (28766)	10/30/1999 11:49:00 AM
From: EPS	Respond to of 42771

Don, I think NOVLs recent stock price crash has more to do with the inability of management to formulate a coherent marketing strategy and in particular their inept/arrogant attitude regarding the departure of Stone et al. I obviously think that the punishment was way overdone. IMHO the buyback program, favorable conditions for stocks, short covering and MSFTs announcement that they would **not release Win 2k before* February 17** did the trick for the rebound. Overvalued? Akamai needed some 230 mill in cash. They were authorized to issue 90 mill shares with a float of 9? mill priced @26. At current valuations the market cap of Akamai is 13 bill (which should be compared with NOVL's which last week was a little over 5 bill). With revenues of about 3 mill and burning about 30 mill++ a year Akamai certainly has ways to go to justify it all. I like the Akamai technology and I like their prospects but I believe they are overvalued. Of course they could go out and buy out NOVL, break it up in several parts, incorporate ICS to their technology and revenue stream and create a fury of excitement in the financial markets in the process...o course increasing the market cap of the combined entity after (or before!) all is said and done <ggg>(I could easily see how to do that) If you think that it cannot be done just look at the history of WORLDCOM.. I really do like tremendously what Eric has done for NOVLs technological outlook, focus, product line, etc etc but I'm still waiting for him to hire some top financial/marketing guys to really get this thing moving at INTERNET speed. I think some imagination and some aggression are needed to effect this and I think that now, that the business has really turned around, is the right time to turn up the heat! I realize -after being a patient shareholder for many painful years- that maybe it's not in them to do that. In that case I think there will be a buyout sooner rather than later. Regards Victor

To: Don Hurst who wrote (28766)	10/31/1999 9:02:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

There are more factors in Novell's future than MSFT's W2K but many people just don't understand this but let's face it, the only way to prove it to them is for MSFT to release their product and let the comparisions begin. For what it's worth I believe W2K will be an improvement of the current version(s) of Windows NT. For many companies it will be something of a savior to them - for other companies it will motivate them to move towards W2K completely. My question to these companies is "at what price?" I don't mean the actual cost of upgrading or migrating but the ancilliary costs of moving to Active Directory and the WAIT for products that will take advantage of that component of W2K. What excites me about that dilemma is that any product developed for Active Directory will be based on LDAP specification for directory services. Guess what??? NDS does this too. I'm not familiar enough with NDS development to be sure but I don't think it would be a far stretch to port that software to Novell's product. Novell doesn't need any other company to "fail" for them to win - Novell (IMHO) has some very good technology in its current products and in their future products (from what I know and see). The most dynamic factor in Novell's future is the ability of the CEO to grab a top-notch marketing VP (preferrably from outside Novell and inside Silicon Valley). This one move alone could be worth more than a few $$ on the share price. As for Akamai and Inktomi et al, Novell is positioning themselves rather nicely with their ICS product. They are getting the "big fish in the pond" looking over their shoulders I should think. Maybe I'm too optimistic but Scott Lemon has made some great sense with "object routing" and if Novell can find a way for it's Directory product to play a part in the future of that....well....the sky's the limit. NDS is the core - the more Novell can push that into new and emerging technology companies (startups etc) the better own future can be. All we need is that new VP of Marketing to bang the drum LOUDLY. Peter J Strifas