Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (9228)	10/30/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

OT Disclosure Having been chided in a PM for apparent bragging on the basis of some recent enthusiastic posts, I would like to put the following on the record: 1. I averaged in to Rambus over spring and summer at 101, sold out at 90 in September for a 10% loss. Missed the final plunge by accident, not prescience. 2. I bought a classic Shiny Pebble in July on a friend's tip, a small drug company with a product in the final stages of the last trial (AIMM). Bought in at 3 1/2, confident of a quick 6-bagger. A month later the trial results came out negative overnight, and by the time I got out at the next morning?s open it was down to 7/8. 3. The only real successes I have had have been with classic G&K plays and with a friend's newly-public company (where I was able to use my personal knowledge of management as a basis for a large bet, quite successful to date). My current relatively orthodox G&K portfolio is the result of trial and lots of error, and the profits from it are still devoted to covering losses from previous mistakes. (If I ever get depressed, I just check out the performance of my former holdings--perfectly decent story stocks or value plays--and then I feel much better.) All I can say for myself as an investor is that I (think I) can learn from those mistakes, and figure out whose ideas to steal (this thread's). Even there, however, some caution is in order, to assure newbies that sheer luck plays a huge part in our results. For example, after reading 6k+ posts, I bought both SEBL and CTXS some months ago at comparable prices in the mid-60s. The former is now almost 110, while the latter is still below water. Go figure. tekboy@cha2makesmesick.com

To: tekboy who wrote (9228)	11/1/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: MoSSTeBoFS (Modified StockHawk Short-Term Bottom-Fishing System) I think this latest round of the test requires the implementation of a refinement to the system. That is: "do not try the test during a week in which a known material event is set to occur". The known material events I am referring to in this case are earnings report but other significant events, such as a date for a court ruling would also qualify. Take a look at QCOM. I think you my have set yourself up for a lose/lose situation. You set the limit at just 2 1/2 percent below the then current price. But Q will report earnings on Tuesday. If they miss expectations the stock will most likely fall far more than 2 1/2 percent, in which case you would buy expensive stock as it begins to fall. On the other (more likely) hand, if they surprise to the upside, the stock may run and you will have missed it. Ditto for GMST which should report this week. I felt compelled to waive this warning flag, since if you miss getting into the Q here you wife may get mad. Her getting mad at you is OK (and likely deserved for a host of other reasons) but if she also got mad at me - because my handle is on the test - now that would be unacceptable. StockHawk

To: tekboy who wrote (9228)	11/1/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

New Timing Test Revision In an attempt to preserve connubial bliss I have altered the conditions of the second MOSSTEBOFS test. Giving up my silly attempt to time Q right before earnings, I have taken Q out of the test by changing the -2.5% limit order to a market order at today's close. (If you people are sticklers, I will consider it a 2.5% loss in the final tally.) The Q has been replaced in the test by SEBL, for which I placed a limit order at -5% of today's close (117 11/16 x 95% = 111 3/4). All else remains the same; results to be tallied next weekend. tekboy@shewon'tletmetrytotimetheQ!.com