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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: swisstrader who wrote (21401)	10/30/1999 11:40:00 PM
From: Panita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

Convergent Comm (CONV) has many fans. Worth Magazine November issue placed it in the 18th spot among the web's Fastest- Growing companies. Well know tech analyst Steve Harmon has mentioned in positively both in his website and in Silicon Investor. CONV was hit hard in August just weeks after its IPO when the CFO resigned abruptly. A lot of funds left holding this loser were likely sellers through out October to take advantage of the tax strategy of selling loser positions to off set other profitable positions. Now that the dateline for funds to sell is over (October 31) selling pressure will likely be over. Sophisticated shorts will likely notice that the downside on CONV is very limited while the risk of being caught holding a short during earnings could be huge. This shorts will likely cover their position. At $10 is my humble opinion that CONV could have a nice run to $14 before the November 10 earnings date. A few additional items that could influence a huge jump that I have not already mention: A) A press release by the company announcing that noteworthy CFO has joined the company B) The original underwriter issuing a strong buy (Goldman Sachs) now that stock trades at $10 well below the IPO price of $15 per share. GS would not issue an upgrade until funds finish selling. They don't want to look stupid by upgrading when the selling pressure by funds was still influencing the stock downwards. At this point with the market going strong CONV is a good bet until earnings are announced. Whether to hold or not through earnings that is another question. I would sell by November 9th then see what happens.