Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (31933)	10/30/1999 8:31:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>how many online traders are just vanishing<< You raise a good question. As I run through my charts I am changing my time frames panning in and out etc trying to get different views hoping a pattern emerges. The one thing that keeps hitting me square inthe forehead is that this year has been flat to down. As experienced traders, we tend to focus on stocks that move up and throw away the flat ones that won't make us money trading the swings. I just ran through a few more folders of stocks that make up the different sector indexes. As I ran through the Banks, software retail etc, the way they are weighted is amazing. Don reminded me of this yesterday and it is really hitting home. For those of you that sort your stocks according to indexes, I highly encourage running through them if you have time. I ran through the retail index and most of the components of that index have lost all year long with many down 50% or more. Retail as anindex is flat for the year and had an impressive rally the last couple days yet stocks within that index were getting slaaughtered this week. Albertons, Kroger were two and safeway which was hotthe last couple years is a fraction of where it was. Same with software CWX. As it was making new highs Friday, almost every single stock in the index is down for the year or at best was flat. Only Adobe and one other seemed to be climbing strong while the other ones were not. I thought this rally was broad based up until a few hours ago, now I am seeing it is games again. GE just broke out over a fairly long term trend resistance line. As I ran through the 26 remaining stocks of the DOW, I now see why, while the DOW was only down 10%, the components of the DOW don't look half as healthy. What does this mean for the short term future? Heck if I know but those that try to paint a picture of an A/D line not meaning as much are fooling themselves. The A/D line IS painting a true picture. Most stocks are down and it appears the rally the last couple of days was again masking under lying ugliness. Will this change over the next few day as the indexes recover? That will need watching. I only track about 100 stocks daily if that many and they tend to be some of the best performers. As such I have been getting tunnel vision. I suspect I am not alone. I guess I need to run this drill more often to get the "big" picture. All I know right now is for the last year, Most banks, retail, Chemincal, software, paper stocks, oil etc have been getting creamed while we only notice that there is a chance of the bear hurting the bull. As we post here about all the warning signs etc, I contend that we may have been in the bear more than even the bearish here have known. Today has been a sobering experience that I wish I had paid attention to earlier. Needless to say, I will have to change my outlook to bullish on the ones I track but I am bearish on this market as a whole until more individual stocks start moving up. Don's warning has a lot of merit. His gap up and strong rally notice may be a ploy to further hide the other 99% that are dropping. Some of these stocks that are dropping I mentioned accelerated thier losses Wednesday - Friday with the charts showing waterfall sell offs. Scary! I hope this is making sense. I feel like I may be rambling but looking at hundreds of charts today and seeing nothing but declines despite the numbers looking good at the Yahoo site is sobering. The extent to which these stocks are down for the year is amazing. How anyone makes money in this market is truly a question that needs to wake us up. If anyone is up for the year, that means we are all trading the same few stocks. This is a more narrow market than I thought and I was bearish and knew it was narrow, I justy didn't realize how narrow. Good Luck, Lee

To: LTK007 who wrote (31933)	10/30/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 99985

Max90 thanks. Regarding your question on where the traders are... Well I guess we'll find out this coming Spring. Keep an eye on chapter 11 filings. I read an article in Business 2.0 which I posted here on the potential of massive bankruptcy filings coming next year. We will then hopefully see who these traders really are. Are they risk capital traders, or did they blow away their Credit card loans, IRA, and savings on the biggest, legalized gambling casino in the world ? Either way, I still don't feel that even the washed out traders from 1999 will make a difference or will be missed. In fact, I think they will come back smarter and stronger. We will read books from some of them and learn to be better, and smarter traders and investors. With the early 1999 Internut meltdown, many lost more than they could handle thanks to relaxed margin requirements. I've posted earlier last week on this board, that I felt Greenspan's biggest mistake was, if we ever remember him for his mistakes, that he did not raise margin requirements before the 1998-1999 Internut bubble. Another interesting observation that was made... The average U.S. household has no more than $1000.00 cash in savings. Time will tell. Twick P.S. You turned me on to PSIX in mid 1998, and never thanked you for that one. That was one hell of a winter ride $^) So... Thanks a million $$$$