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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)10/30/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: d. alexander  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 69896
 
Harry; am going to go on to the other items in a mo, but with respect to that first one >>>Interesting market outlook:

Don't know how familiar you are with that person's approach (a very nice person!) & (above all) what do I know? BUT I used to follow the posts regularly &
a) the analysis derives from something you can't grasp or analyze i.e. is not rational or at least revealed to be rational or analytic (tho there are peripheral analyses, as in this post, which make sense)...
b) from my observations (maybe not very astute) the calls were usually not so good (in terms of timing - I mean, sure, they were right eventually)

Next week i will eat my words, except...I will have forgotten them. So you can remind me! Anyway, usually there is a 50% chance of being right (works both ways).



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)10/30/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: d. alexander  Respond to of 69896
 
>>>A better explanation of the significance of the BKX:

scusi, better than what? Am also wondering in what way the BKX gives a sell signal. It is one of the indices I watch, but surely it's gotten (reasonably) exuberant because of this recent legislation repeal... so maybe not that ominous - except it will not be able to sustain its ebullience.

That sector analysis info is terrific! I tried to copy the stuff on the Fidelity site & it won't copy! Those rascals. Gotta buy a fund first.

Dorothy



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)10/31/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: shasta23  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69896
 
HI HARRY!

Thanks for the wealth of interesting links and also the explanation of your adx/macd model of overbought/oversold readings.
That's enough reading material for a some hours. But i had to help a friend working on his barn - i would've never thought about doing these kind a things while i still lived in a large urban area in Germany - so further studies will be delayed until tomorrow.

The last two days really opened my eyes a little bit in regards of risk and reward. The ideas are certainly not clear yet in my mind but i realized that minimizing the risk also produced a loss of opportunity. It became clear to me that the whole concept of risk is still very unclear in me and that relates not only to stock market trading but life in general. SO i missed some opportunities but i also felt like that a window was opened for me in regards of this important topic which will influence my trading. And in that sense it was not a wasted week.

Thanks for all the great posts!

Stefan



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)11/5/1999 5:01:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 69896
 
To: L3_aka_L3 (31938 )
From: dennis michael patterson Saturday, Oct 30 1999 8:38PM ET
Reply # of 32328

Favors:
Oct 29, 1999

For the last two weeks it has been our position that the Dow
saw a very important bottom on October 15. So far the Dow
has rallied 761 points on a closing basis from that low. At the
highs today the Dow was up 167 points. We closed up 109.20.
The forecast we gave last Friday called for a short-term low by
Monday or Tuesday of this week and then another rally into the
next short-term high, due near Monday, November 1, plus or
minus 1 day. The Dow so far reached a closing low of 10302 on
Tuesday, October 26. We have since rallied 429 points to
today's close of 10731.70. The Dow exceeded 10782 intraday
today, so the Gann Weekly Chart has given a Buy Signal today.
It is possible that the Gann Monthly Chart could turn up next
week. There are only two Gann Charts which are more
important than the Gann Weekly Chart: The Monthly Chart and
the Quarterly Chart (we discussed the Quarterly Chart last
week). The longer the time span covered; the stronger are its
signals. So, a Monthly Chart is more important than a Weekly,
and the Quarterly Chart is more important than a Monthly. For
the Monthly Chart to turn up, the Dow must exceed the intraday
high for the month of October. So far the intraday high this
month was seen today on October 29.
The 5-Day RSI on the Dow closed at 75.80 today. The RSI
reaches overbought territory above 70, so today's reading is only
a mildly overbought reading. The Dow once again closed back
above its 200-Day Moving Average today, which is a short-term
positive signal. The 10-Day Rate of Change is still rising with the
Dow, which is short-term bullish. The Dow closed above its
second Fibonacci Speedline today, which is bullish.
This week we gave our subscribers a preliminary upside
projection for the Dow calling for a rally up near 10810 plus or
minus 92 points intraday. That projection calls for a minimum of
10718 intraday to a maximum of 10902 intraday. We are well
into that projection at Friday's highs. The Dow will normally find
very strong resistance to any rally up near or just above the top
of its 21-Day 3 1/2% Exponential Trading Band. We rallied
above the top of the band on an intraday basis today. The top
was 10806 intraday. The top of the band on Monday should be
near 10837 or so intraday. We would expect the Dow to find
short-term resistance to any further rally Monday in that area, at
least for the next few days.
While we look for a brief correction early next week we remain
bullish, and it remains our position that the Dow will ultimately
see new all-time highs over the coming weeks and months.





To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)11/5/1999 5:27:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 69896
 
Let's see if CIEN pulls back at the open. It has had quite a run the last few days as has the market. The 40 million WMB contract is only $0.29 cents per share over three years. I expect the revenue recognition will not be linear.



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)11/5/1999 5:36:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69896
 
Anyone looking to play stocks based on COMDEX announcements?

It looks like RMBS will get a bit of a bounce.




To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24210)11/5/1999 5:59:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 69896
 
To: IQBAL LATIF (29571 )
From: IQBAL LATIF
Thursday, Nov 4 1999 8:25AM ET
Reply # of 29582

Screening for Highly Profitable Companies

by Dave Sterman, Director of Online Research (11/2/99)

Global giants such as General Electric (NYSE:GE - Quotes, News, Boards) or IBM
(NYSE:IBM - Quotes, News, Boards) generate massive profits every quarter. In
absolute terms, blue chip stocks are the most profitable companies around. But what
about on a relative basis? Are these companies squeezing the most profit out of every
dollar of sales? Not necessarily.

We ran a screen of companies that have consistently generated very strong returns on
their sales. Specifically, we looked for outfits that have posted an average pre-tax profit
margin of 25% over the last five years. (Profit margins is the amount of profit made from
every dollar sales. A company that earns $0.20 before taxes on each dollar of sales has
a pre-tax margin of 20%).
Like this Article?

We wanted to make sure that the trend is our friend, so companies need to bump up
that pre-tax profit mark to 30% over the last four quarters. Just as important, these
selected companies must have posted successive sales growth over the last few years.

In addition, each company should be on track to boost profits yet further this year and
next. Lastly, we weeded out the small fry, demanding that each entrant have a market
capitalization of at least $400 million.

It should come as no surprise that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC - Quotes, News, Boards)
and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - Quotes, News, Boards) made the cut. These tech
giants have spun off massive amounts of cash as they have dominated their niches. In
addition, unlike other technology vendors, these two firms do not need to deploy a
massive sales force to peddle their products.

Not surprisingly, several biotech outfits made the cut. While a new drug or treatment is
still under patent protection, it is often quite expensive. But the drug manufacturing
process is not overly burdensome, especially when sales climb and manufacturing
efficiencies are achieved.

That sums up the track record for Theragenics (NYSE:TGX - Quotes, News, Boards),
which makes radioactive implantable seeds that treat prostate cancer. After several
years of torrid growth, pre-tax profit margins have stabilized at a very respectable 54%.

Through a marketing arrangement with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - Quotes,
News, Boards), the company is shipping ever larger quantities of its tiny pellets. Sales of
$11.5 million in its third quarter were a record for the company, and Paine Webber?s
Charles Olsziewski sees them rising to record levels over the next five quarters as well.

Shares of Theragenics have come down sharply from their all-time high, as many have
questioned whether the company?s super hot growth was sustainable. Admittedly, the
company is no longer positioned to double sales and profits, but 30% growth looks
quite sustainable. Shares recently traded hands for around 15 times consensus earnings
estimates for 2000.

A more diverse bet on high-margin biotech stocks is Jones Pharma (NASDAQ:JMED -
Quotes, News, Boards), which buys the rights to small, underpromoted drugs that it can
peddle through its sales force. That strategy has paid off in spades, as the company?s
pre-tax profit margin has accelerated each year to a recent 56.8%. That?s a big
number! The strong pre-tax margins stem from 80+% gross profit margins.

And recently acquired drugs should help keep the numbers aloft. The company is also
expected to spend its $162 million cash balance to acquire yet more drugs. Hambrecht
& Quist?s Alex Zisson thinks that if the company spent half of that cash on new drugs,
his current 2000 earnings estimate of $1.20 a share would rise to $1.50 a share. At a
recent $31.50, the shares look very attractive in light of the expanding drug pipeline.

The semiconductor industry also has its shares of high-profit players. That?s because a
company charge a significant premium if it delivers State of the Art solutions to high tech
customers. Our two favorites in the group: Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR - Quotes, News,
Boards) and Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX - Quotes, News, Boards). Both companies
make specialty chips, known as Programmable Logic Devices (PLD).

In addition to continually rolling out new chips that command prices, both companies
have forsworn the headaches and costs associated with manufacturing. Each outfit farms
out its orders to contract manufacturers, keeping internal costs fairly low. That has
enabled both Altera and Xilinx to post pre-tax profit margins in excess of 30%.

Ticker Name 5 Yr. Avg.
Pretax
Margin TTM
Pretax
Margin Mean E.P.S.
Next FY
ALSI Advantage Learning 28.26 42.01 0.82
ALTR Altera Corp. 31.58 39.15 1.42
AMGN Amgen, Inc. 40.11 45.53 2.22
CTXS Citrix Systems 31.32 57.28 1.65
DCR Duff & Phelps Cr. Rating 29.86 35.34 4.55
GNTX Gentex Corporation 27.59 36.31 1.01
INTC Intel Corporation 36.28 39.01 2.67
JMED JONES PHARMA, Inc. 31.94 56.77 1.20
LLTC Linear Technology 53.74 56.39 1.87
MXIM Maxim Integrated Products 42.81 48.96 1.96
MRX Medicis Pharmaceutical 26.38 56.17 1.60
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 45.37 60.22 1.83
SAWS Sawtek, Inc. 26.56 45.59 0.86
CKH Seacor Smit 28.86 30.07 2.86
TLAB Tellabs, Inc. 26.87 33.41 1.65
TGX Theragenics Corp. 44.77 54.29 0.73
USM U.S. Cellular 25.03 37.74 1.99