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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonkie who wrote (45985)	10/31/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: J.Y. Wang	Respond to of 122087

The cardboard box example is very good. It reminds me of all the losers waiting for some POS BB company to file. They base their hype on the assumption that things will be great if the company just files their form 10's but in most cases there are very good reasons why they can't file and the stock price would go to hell if they did. Too much greed and not enough fear in the market right now. Happens periodically to various investments. Real estate in Hong Kong comes to mind, as well as stock markets in Japan and Taiwan. I really can't imagine anything but a peak, and soon. Peaks are usually reached when valuations are insane and there is rampant speculation without regard for valuation. This happened in Hong Kong when a condo would be sold before it was even built, and it would be sold several times before completion, each seller gaining a hefty profit. Many of these Internet and Internet infrastructure companies doing their IPO right now are really companies still being built -- like unfinished condos. They have almost no revenues and are valued in the $5, $10, or $15 billion range -- they are really valued for the best case scenerio 5-10 years out. But something has to happen to bring people back to reality -- the spark that lights the explosino. AMZN's bricks-and-mortar type of growth (with growing losses, no less) last quarter might have done it if the market were not so insane. Maybe another economic crisis in a critical part of the world. Maybe Greenspan increasing the federal margin requirements. Maybe Russia officially breaking out into anarchy or civil war. I don't know.