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To: Tomas who wrote (53785)	10/31/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Tomas: Thanks for posting that article!

To: Tomas who wrote (53785)	10/31/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 95453

Another comment: From the article: The efforts by OPEC in 1999 to control output has increased the excess worldwide shut-in capacity. OGJ estimates that excess capacity amounted to 9.6 million b / d in 1999. This is 11.8% of total worldwide capacity and 13.3% of the demand for oil and NGL. ...Then the article goes on to say you need 6-7% of demand in excess capacity to compensate for maintenance and other problems. So this means that at current 77 mbpd of demand, the worldwide excess capacity as of today is around 4.6 mbpd. But, there is a supply/demand shortfall currently at maybe up to 3.5 mbpd. So, that leaves the the total excess capacity (after OPEC decides to pump more to meet demand) at a whopping 1.1 mbpd!!!!!!!! ....It is hard to figure out who to believe, but if you lean towards Simmons, the last word one would use for non-OPEC supply going forward is "increase". He says, it will be lucky if non-OPEC can maintain its current levels of production. If that is so, it is up to OPEC to increase capacity, and as they gain market share, you can bet that the days of $20 oil will be behind us (IMHO).