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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kayaker who wrote (1572)	10/31/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Drake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Bob, you've go to be kidding (NT entering into competition with JDSU) -- imo, don't sweat it! dc

To: Kayaker who wrote (1572)	10/31/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: Glenn McDougall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

<<Nortel set to unveil strategy for fibre-optic production. It's an interesting question, but it depends on what is meant by "fibre-optic production". Nortel is JDSU's 2nd largest customer, 17% of sales this past quarter. So is NT entering into competition with JDSU, or are they just stepping up production of existing products, in which case, it would increase JDSU sales to NT. I don't know.>> Bob, Nortel, LU and others have been manufacturing components for quite some time. Ramping of NT's production should be viewed in context of the big picture imo. Please don't get me wrong we should be aware of what our customers are doing. Food for thought... these figures quoted in September 99... The current $5-billion (U.S.) fibre-optics industry is forecast to grow to $21.3 billion within five years. "JDS Uniphase now dominates the optical equipment industry," Savov says. "They are 50% bigger than the rest of their competitors combined." Another point made (not in the same article) was currently (as of September) 50% of fiber optic components are made inhouse and 50% are made buy suppliers such as JDSU, SDLI and ETEK. That means in dollar terms 2.5 billion for suppliers such as JDSU, SDLI and ETEC ... HOWEVER by 2003 the current thought is that 70% of (21.3 billion) components (and in JDSU's case component and modules) will be made by suppliers. That is $14.91 Billion or a multiple of 5.964 times what is currently being sold. Regards Glenn

To: Kayaker who wrote (1572)	10/31/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: jackmore	Respond to of 24042

Bob, Re: So is NT entering into competition with JDSU, or are they just stepping up production of existing products, in which case, it would increase JDSU sales to NT. I have little doubt that it is the latter. Generally, I believe NT produces on the module/system level using components made by JDSU. But it would be nice to have some confirmation. Regards, jack

To: Kayaker who wrote (1572)	10/31/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

Bob -- Based on the fiber optics panel at this week's H&Q conference, components manufacturing is the biggest challenge in the industry. "Packaging" is difficult and the first guy to come up with a better mousetrap is going to make a killing. Bookham was mentioned but with the comment they're not executing well. The technology is so specialized, the barriers to entry are enormous. Companies like JDSU, SDLI, and ETEK have more business than they can handle. And based on what was said this isn't likely to change for a long time. Some say ten years, though I doubt anyone really knows for sure. As for determining who has what percentage of any vendor's business, there are many products and it's not a question that can be easily answered. (This isn't addressed to you but to whoever was asking the question. I'm short on time and whipping this out on the run. . . ) In short, the perception on the Street is that f.o components are in huge demand and the leaders -- those I've mentioned --- are going to continue to thrive. I'm long JDSU and SDLI and don't mean to hype either company. Just trying to relay what was said at the conference. This week there'll be more to learn at NGN in DC. Of the five tracks, one is devoted to optical networking technologies. bcr.com Later -- Pat