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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (31996)	10/31/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don--As I see it, we have a window of about 2 more weeks to make a new high.We either do it "now" or we are going back down to test that low which saw the highest number of new lows and poorest daily breadth for the entire Correction. So far, no meaningful retest and no positive divergence at the bottom, which is troubling.Combine that with virtually no room left for GE to keep going and we have the potential at least for a massive s.t. trap for bullish traders----All that we need under Elliott is for a 5 wave up sequence to be completed. (so far, we are in wave (iii) of 3). There is nothing that says that such 5 wave move need go to new highs. It could "fail"----in fact 5th wave failures are common precursers to a stronger downdraft to come....So, my strategy in here is to wait for 5 waves to appear complete and no matter where we then are to get out completely and sit and wait. As of Friday's close, I think we have done 1 and 2 and we will complete 3 this week, and 5 perhaps next week. One scenario that may in fact come to pass is the completion of a 5 wave upmove that fails below 11300ish into mid Nov and then another sharp spike down below 9976. Another alternative of course is that the retrace after 5 waves up holds above 10 on the test of the low and then we get a moonshot towards 12 as a Wave 3 of a larger 5 wave sequence ultimately going towards 13. Pick your poison