Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Percival 917 who wrote (9314)	10/31/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: voop	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

A few of us tried that with Rambus. Still waiting (but not with any stock) regards Voop

To: Percival 917 who wrote (9314)	10/31/1999 8:10:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Joel, Before I answer your questions about the time to buy Citrix, I'll give a little background. Cha2 and I participated in a Citrix thread a couple years ago when we wondered about whether or not Citrix was a good buy back then. We had the typical discussions about the high valuations, the dilemma about needing Microsoft as a partner, and wondering whether or not the big picture supported a need for Citrix's product for a long time. At that time, the one and only reason I bought the stock was because my belief in the big picture was so profound I was willing to accept the risk of depending upon Softie as a partner. Though I hated the valuation (which was half what it is today), I shut my eyes and bought the stock. Back then, I had no understanding of gorilla-game criteria because the book had not been written. Now to your questions. Do you feel it is too early to buy CTXS because it is not in the tornado or is there any other factors. It's the issue of the tornado. The other factors that bothered me two years ago trouble me less now. The PEG ratio, which stands at 1.8, is not far above the 1.5 fair value I use for potential gorillas (though I thought two years ago it was a valuation beyond my reaching point.) The issue of depending upon Microsoft is less of a concern for me today because I think Citrix is on the brink of depending less and less upon Gates & Co. Also, if you felt for sure that CTXS was going to be in a tornado, would not now be a good time to take an initial position and then add to it as you see the sequential quarter after quarter growth? If you're suggesting that taking a partial position in the stock of an enabling product before it enters the tornado lessens the risk, I guess that's one way of looking at it. But I prefer to look only at the invested dollars and wonder if I could find a better risk/reward ratio elsewhere. I think a better way to lessen the risk is to fully understand the company in terms of the stuff in Inside the Tornado. The book tells us what the executive management team should be doing to get past the bowling alley and into the tornado. If management is doing all those things, that would seem to indicate the kind of reduction in risk that might make me feel better about making a pre-tornado investment. (I'm not sufficiently familiar with the details yet to have an informed opinion about that.) As Moore and the other authors point out in Game, it is inevitable that the more sophisticated investors will work around the rigid rules of gorilla gaming; using his own writing as the basis of a work-around is hardly blasphemy! If I didn't fully answer your question, try me again. And tell me to concentrate the second time around. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Percival 917 who wrote (9314)	11/1/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

Merlin, Do you feel it is too early to buy CTXS because it is not in the tornado or is there any other factors. Also, if you felt for sure that CTXS was going to be in a tornado, would not now be a good time to take an initial position and then add to it as you see the sequential quarter after quarter growth?? As always appreciate your thoughts, Squire J SSSSHHHHHHHH! didn't you hear? we're not allowed to ask Mr. Wizard questions anymore... <giggle> tekboy@theregomyreturns.com