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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (44327)	11/1/1999 2:34:00 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

TRICKS or TREATS... ---- .... RISKS and REWARDS are questions for the FOMC, Congress, the Market, and the Investor. Are the Halloween, Sept. and Oct?, reports indicating slowing in spending Tricks or Treats. Is the slowing the result of slowing in income growth, interest rates, market actions, trade dislocations, seasonal factors, apprehension about y2k, or a new found conservatism about savings and debt? Historically it is difficult to identify trend changes during the Sept. Oct. seasonal transitional period. The FOMC will be interpreting these Tricks or Treats at their next meeting. I remain apprehensive whether Congress repealing of Glass-Steagall is a Trick or Treat. Just because a hundred year event has not occurred for seventy years does not mean you change the design codes. Undoubtedly some time in the future Fed intervention interest rate policy will be ineffective. It has occurred twice this century. One can only accept the Fed's own risk analysis of the associated banking crisis. The spread between corporate and governmental bonds continued to expand indicating their is more to the present market risk than inflation and Fed action. Were the end of last week's interest rate and market rallies Tricks or Treats? It would not surprise me to see a reversal back to higher interest rates this week. While the apparent flow of funds into the stock market looks positive, on an individual stock basis investors are best advised to consider the risk reward levels. Skeet