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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (32007)	10/31/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I am thinking 2-3 weeks max because of the sharpness of the Thursday/Fri rally. It looks like it doesn't want to waste any time, so momentum will likely take hold in a run for the roses. The important number will be the Nov 5 employment data. If not as shocking as some are thinking (eg SSB is at 550,000 new jobs due to overhang from hurricane), it would likely fuel a furthur surge and may be enough to get us to the 11500ish area shortly therafter... I don't think anyone now cares about +1/4 on Nov17.... My trading software (Advanced GET) is targeting around Nov 11 based on momentum and a potential key stop and reverse test in the area of 11500-11750. Somehow, if we are going to make it, I don't think we're going to meander this time.---We could of course complete 5 waves up by Nov4 and find that the employment data are so strong that we turn back down and gear up for a retest of 9975 after that....I'm not too optimistic we're going to do anything good after mid Novemebr as Y2K fears may then take hold into the first week of Jan----So maybe THIS is the Santa rally without snow.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (32007)	11/1/1999 8:11:00 AM
From: j.o.	Respond to of 99985

The latest musings from the IndexTrade.com Market Doctor... Markets @ a Glance November 1, 1999 The markets received a bout of fundamental follow through from Thursday's euphoric activity. Alan Greenspan seemed to have held the trump card to provide the go ahead to further up moves in Stocks and Bonds and he did just that, by not injecting any hard negative spins to the economy (e.g. inflation talk or danger from equity values). In addition to this, the markets were dealt more positive news from some weakness in economic reports including New Homes Sales, Prices Paid in Chicago Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment. Although these are not generally high market moving releases, the bullish fever was strong and this added fuel to the fire. On a special note: The Doc was a little surprised at Chairman Greenspan's quick return to a seemingly "all is well in the economy due to strong productivity" tone. After a few months of concerns regarding tight labor and price pressures, Greenspan seems to have back peddled in response to one day of economic releases (e.g. GDP and ECI). Just to be fair, I'll admit that the Chairman did provide some longer term potential concerns (e.g. trade balance and uncertainty of continued productivity growth), that provided a little balance to the overall picture. Stocks Friday's activity provided the follow through needed to shake much of the nervous negative undertones Stocks had been plagued by over the last couple of months. The NASDAQ attained historic ground, the S&P is well back into it's 6-month trading range and even the Dow may have finally neutralized it's negative medium term technical picture. The markets did settle well off the peaks of the session as traders may have realized the market moving NAPM report due out today. If you remember, this was the report that broke Bonds out of their lackluster trading range last month in the form of higher yields. No near term technicals to make mention of, as short-term price activity has been a bit too one way...(UP!!). However, if the Dow can take out 10,800 on a close, technicals will actually paint a more bullish picture for the medium term. Keep an eye on Bond yields and the Prices Paid portion of the NAPM. Bonds Two relief trading days in a row for the Long Bond, as the positive news on productivity and weak economic data provided the impetus to breach near-term yield support at 6.19%. New support resides at 6.12% and then of course the big 6.0%. I would be a bit careful of this market as yields have retraced significantly in only 2 sessions. It almost appears that the market is looking ahead for continued weakness in economic data. Intra-day activity could be whippy. Once again, look at the NAPM Currencies Although US/Yen appears to be nearing hot levels (e.g. 103), market volatility remains tame and therefore peripheral markets ( Stocks and Bonds) will not pay much attention. However, if the pace of US$ depreciation suddenly increases, keep a watchful eye. Stephan Kudyba (MBA/PhD)..... THE MARKET DOCTOR indextrade.com