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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (32012)	10/31/1999 9:31:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

theStreet.com just did a poll--of 552 guesses on the DJ, 62% said this rally is the real thing and 38% said no------I'm surprised that the No's were as high as 38! Still enough skeptics to move higher short term

To: Gary Burton who wrote (32012)	11/1/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>what was fair value on the futures at the close Fri? << I am trying to figure that out myself. I had fair value around 7 but the disparity in the indexes was about 12. I don't understand why and it is really skewing the opening triggers. I don't know if it has to do with the shuffle of the DOW or what. Regarding your targets, they sound about the same as what Brogan was looking for. I think his top was around 10800 although he was targeting 10740 and the 10800+ was the high error area. You don't even want to think about what I have as possible if this recovery is for real and the market goes into full fledged bull mode. It would rip shorts to shreds. I looked at teh top tines on my charts which is stretching things a bit because the market would have to discount the Fed and go back to it's mad buying frenzy ways of old, but the what if says we could go to 12800 by Jan 1 before it would be a high probability short to bet the house on. Befoer I get spammed saying I am doing drugs, again this is just if the market were to go back to the rate of climb of the last 4 years and could get back to the top of the channel. I don't think we will make it much past the old highs and who knows, the market may be just trying to stay up long enough for UPS to go public. We are just now approaching the middle tine of the weekly so we should slow here for a bit I would hope and my daily has mid tine resistance around 11300 so I fully expect us to stall there a while if we ever make it back that high. I expect eth employment report or some other economic data will trip us up before we ever get there though. Inflation is alive and well and they are fooling themselves if they think otherwise. Gas here is $1.46 on base for the cheap stuff, food is waaay up, raw materials for manufacturing are climbing and I even can't short MU anymore because all the reports say there is going to be a rise in DRAM demand so my favorite short play might not even pay me every quarter anymore. What is the world coming to <ggg> EDIT - Casaubon, thanks that makes sense. I am trying to decipher some of the commodity based indexes also. They dropped hard through supports then started forming consolidation patterns that are narrowing. Not exactly flags and not wedges either. They will be breaking soon but darned if I know which way. Take a look at the XOI, OIX, XNG etc. They are all doing the same thing. When they go, they should give a clue. Good Luck, Lee