To: FJB who wrote (23435 ) 11/1/1999 9:19:00 AM From: fellow Respond to of 25960
Bob- Thanks for the clarification. I thought Didier said there would be 6-7000 by 2002, as I said. Others have posted the SIA roadmap, but I've heard that lately the industry is moving much faster than the roadmap. I didn't see how they could produce 90+% of the 6-7000 by 2002. Even if it's 2005, wouldn't they have to be producing at nearly 100% KrF lasers, without producing ArF lasers? Regarding 1999- It sounds like Didier may be reading off two different pages: >>Deahna: K=Ok. And last question, Pascal, what do you think the laser market will be in units in 1999? Didier: What do I think the laser market in 1999 will be? Angus: 1999? Deahna: Yeah. This year. Didier: Jay, I don't have that number with me, but I'll be more than happy to give that to you ? I'll give it to Bill later on today, so if you guys have a one-on-one, I'll give you that.<< and: >>Didier: No, because the thing you have to realize is the 248 nm wavelength is really at the beginning of its lifecycle. I mean there will probably be about a thousand 248 nm tools installed at the end of 1999. And there is a market potential of about 6 or 7 thousand of those tools over time. So even when we talk about a transition to ArFl, this is something which is about 2 years away. << About the copper- I was blessed with a returned call from Bob Akins about two years ago. It was the day IBM reported it's copper interconnect technology (or is it the whole IC?), and I wanted to know if it impacted Cymer or Lithography. I'm not a fab rat. He said it would not, as you just said. I guess it was a dumb question to ask again, but Dr. Bob cared enough to spend 15 to 20 minutes talking to me. Unfortunatley for me, I loaded up at around 31 and sold at 15 for a tax loss at the end of December but then bought back later at the same price. What else was confusing? Cheers- fellow