Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : TLM.TSE Talisman Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LARRY LARSON who wrote (534)	11/1/1999 6:57:00 AM
From: Edward M. Zettlemoyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1713

Larry, Net income estimates at .24/share as compared to .15/share for 2nd Qtr. eom Ed

To: LARRY LARSON who wrote (534)	11/1/1999 7:09:00 AM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 1713

"It's hard not to feel a little sympathy for Mr. Buckee -- not to mention Talisman shareholders" Talisman deep in Sudan quagmire The Globe & Mail, Monday, November 1 MATHEW INGRAM Calgary -- There's no question Talisman Energy Inc. chief executive officer Jim Buckee likes a good fight -- that much is clear from his politically incorrect stance on global warming. But with Talisman's investment in Sudan, he finds himself in the middle of a major donnybrook, one that has him fighting not just well-meaning social activists but the foreign-policy machinery of Canada and the United States. Mr. Buckee had better dig in -- this one could turn into a marathon. Bigger fighters than Mr. Buckee have already thrown in the towel on this play. It's worth remembering that Talisman's Sudan oil field was first developed by Chevron in the 1970s, at a cost of more than $1-billion (U.S.), but the U.S. firm decided the long-running civil war in the country made continued investment too risky, and it sold out in 1984. The property changed hands a few times before ending up with tiny Arakis Energy of Calgary, which flamed out in a spectacular way and was eventually taken over by Talisman last year. Now U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axworthy have joined the fray, criticizing Talisman's dealings with the Islamic military regime that controls Sudan and muttering about possible economic sanctions. Rather than tell both governments to stuff it, which he no doubt would prefer to do, Mr. Buckee has wisely chosen the conciliatory route -- saying Talisman will help if it can. Obviously, Talisman knew it was getting into bed with a powder keg when it got involved in Sudan: The country has been at war with itself for decades, if not centuries, and is a regular contestant in the foreign-aid hotspot-of-the-week sweepstakes. Nevertheless, it's hard not to feel a little sympathy for Mr. Buckee -- not to mention Talisman shareholders, who have watched their stock's value deteriorate rapidly over the past few months because of the company's Sudan involvement. After all, oil companies are involved in lots of troubled countries: Canadian Occidental's properties in Yemen produce a large chunk of that country's revenue, and rebels have been fighting there for years. Outrage over Sudan ignores the fact that Western governments support a brutal regime in China -- or that U.S. sanctions against Sudan make exceptions for gum arabic (Sudan accounts for 80 per cent of the world's supply), which is used in everything from soda pop and beer to cosmetics and printer's ink. Christian missionary groups in particular have targeted Talisman to try and raise awareness of Sudan. Why? Because the southern part of the country is largely Christian, while the northern regime that controls the government is Muslim. These missionaries are continuing a crusade that dates back to the 1800s, when Britain sent famed commander "Chinese Charles" Gordon to fight the "whirling dervishes" of an Islamic leader known as the Mahdi. The problem with Sudan is that it is a complicated nation, and even trying to boil it down to Muslim versus Christian fails to capture the reality. Aid groups have criticized Mr. Buckee for dismissing tales of slavery and pillaging as "tribal warfare," but there is a real basis for such comments. There is a long and tortured history of fighting among the country's more than 300 tribes, dozens of religious groups and two main regions -- the dry, desert-like north and the lush, rainy south -- that goes back centuries. One of the reasons why the current fighting in Sudan has continued for the past 16 years, even before general Omar Bashir's national Islamic front took control in 1989, is that leaders of the rebels and the pro-government militia keep changing sides. In 1991, the most well-known split occurred when several rebel leaders -- including one warlord who now helps protect Talisman's oil fields and pipeline from his former comrades -- left the Sudanese people's liberation army (SPLA) and joined up with the government. One of the main rebel groups active in the north is a former leader of a pro-government militia, who rejoined the SPLA in May, and just last month a key lieutenant with another pro-government brigade also returned to the rebels. One infamous tribal warlord who regularly brutalized his own people, Kerubino Kuanyen, jumped sides with abandon: He started out as a rebel, then joined the pro-government militia, then sided with the rebels again. Last month, he was killed -- reportedly assassinated by a rival rebel leader. Even the peace talks Ms. Albright supports have been delayed by dissension. One rebel leader, John Garang -- who has a degree in agricultural economics from Iowa State University -- backs one set of peace talks favoured by the United States, primarily because it doesn't involve any hostile Arab countries. That process is aimed at either a democratic and non-religious Sudan, or secession by the south. But other opposition groups reject the idea of secession and support an alternate set of talks involving Libya and Egypt (to which Sudan has historic ties), aimed at an Arab-led accord for a united Sudan. Should oil companies stay out of politically sensitive and ethically questionable places such as Sudan? It would be nice if they could -- but unfortunately, that's where a lot of the world's oil happens to be. Companies such as Talisman shouldn't knowingly help finance slavery and murder, obviously, but neither should they be expected to sort out ethnic and religious battles that were already old when Churchill was in grade school.

To: LARRY LARSON who wrote (534)	11/5/1999 6:13:00 AM
From: Edward M. Zettlemoyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1713

Larry and all, Talisman Energy earnings hot ca.dailynews.yahoo.com Also, from my prior post <Net income estimates at .24/share> actual is .45 Can., conversion to US is .306, like the rest of TLM's figures, well above estimated market consensus. From the rear view mirror, (unrealistic with current oil prices) TLM's cash flow for the past 12 months is $7.44 Canadian, US conversion $5.059 times general formula 7cf equals $35.41 fair market value minus discount for LT debt. All said TLM's price is way, way undervalued at the present assuming sanctions will not be enforced. It is my opinion that the Canadian government's findings and recommendations on Sudan will parallel the opinions of the very Honorable and respected Christian Mr Jimmy Carter, whom the Clinton Administration chooses to ignore. IMO big mistake. More on historical mistakes. sudan.net eom, Ed