To: SteveG who wrote (839 ) 11/1/1999 10:38:00 AM From: SteveG Respond to of 1860
from Fahnestock's Bauer: WCII: Undervalued: WinStar is the cheapest (healthy) company we have a rating on. The stock advanced 4% last week but its discount to NAV ($92) is still in grossly undervalued (58% discount) territory. 3Q numbers are due on Nov. 2 and should show solid line growth and gross margin expansion. So why are investors hesitant to step up to the plate? The responses we've been getting since we jumped on the WCII bandwagon largely boil down to a lack of faith in the company's guidance. This market doesn't want good guidance - it wants guarantees. When guidance changes (for whatever reason), investors jump ship. People are still buzzing about the change in 2000 guidance that took place over a month ago. Until this wears off, WCII could stay in “show me” mode. Nonetheless, there is a huge value here which is why we like the stock. Assuming fundamentals are intact, this stock is a screaming buy. NXLK: Fairly valued: NXLK advanced almost 4% last week further shrinking its already skinny public market discount to 27%. Historically, CLECs run out of gas at this valuation level (although NXLK regularly violates this rule of thumb). Our current $82 NAV is based on pretty aggressive assumptions that leave little room in our opinion for meaningful upward revisions until we roll our 2000 NAV. This estimate (which approximates $100 per share) puts the stock's pro-forma discount to NAV at 40% - which is attractive but far from cheap. The company's near flawless execution is, without question, the reason for the premium valuation so for investors who want the best of the best – this is your stock – just remember you're not getting it cheap. TGNT: Attractive: TGNT tumbled over 16% last week on no news thus ending the month with an unexplained sell-off that's become somewhat of a tradition (see our series on this weird price action “what a day for a day trade”). We don't know why but this stock trades in 5 point increments and tends to have big i.e., 20% to 30% sell-offs at the end of every month. So far, buying on these dips has proven to be a great way to trade the stock or add to existing positions. The company is slated to release 3Q numbers this week but surprises are unlikely since results have been practically pre-released. So unless we're missing something fundamental (which we doubt), the stock is cheap. TGNT shares typically bottom when their discount to NAV hits 45% to 50% (5 times since June 98') which is where we are now. Attention traders, history says we're in for a rebound.